Impacted by the short-term factors of tightening macroeconomic policy,ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,escalating geopolitical conflicts and frequent major climatic disasters,the world economic growth rate declined significantly in 2022,accompanied by the continued soaring in CPI of developed countries,intensification of geopolitical and economic games between major countries,increased turbulence of financial markets,rapid increase of U.S. dollar index and drastic fluctuation of commodity prices. At present,a variety of short-term problems and long-term contradictions of the world economy are intertwining,which not only leads to the emergence of several unstable,uncertain,and insecure short-term factors,but also gradually shows some deep-seated and structural issues. Looking ahead,the trends and developments of curbing inflation and achieving a soft landing,the spillover effects of macro policy shifts in the U.S. and EU,large-scale international sanctions and their impact,the politicization of regional economic and technological mechanisms,and the global food crisis deserve attention. Taking into account the current signs of the world economic development and other factors,this report believes that the world economic recovery will face more pressure in 2023 than 2022,and it is highly likely that the economic growth rate will drop further to 2.5%..
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