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    2022~2023年美国经济:从繁荣走向衰退

    • 作者:杨子荣出版日期:2022年12月
    • 报告页数:24 页报告大小:1.35MB
    • 报告字数:19957 字所属丛书: 世界经济黄皮书
    • 所属图书:2023年世界经济形势分析与预测
    • 浏览人数:    下载次数:

    摘要

    在经历了短暂的扩张后,2022年上半年美国经济连续两个季度呈负增长,陷入“技术性”衰退。受益于强劲的劳动力市场,NBER认定的实质性经济衰退尚未发生,但消费后劲不足和投资迎来向下拐点,表明增长动能趋于衰减。由于纾困政策退出,美国财政赤字大幅缩减,但加息导致付息成本逐年增加,长期债务负担恐难维持。近期美国政府出台《通胀削减法案》,有利于促进美国能源转型和气候应对,但对治理通胀的作用几乎可以忽略不计。由于通胀持续“高烧不退”,且引发通胀的因素逐渐从供给侧向需求侧转移,迫使美联储持续大幅度加息。在加息的作用下,美元指数进入相对强势周期,美股经历显著回调,美债收益率曲线出现倒挂。高通胀、极度紧张的劳动力市场以及负的实际利率,使得美联储实现经济“软着陆”的空间十分狭窄。 <<
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    Abstract

    After a brief expansion,the U.S. economy fell into a “technical” recession with two quarters of negative growth in the first half of 2022. As the labor market remains strong,a substantial economic recession identified by the NBER has not yet occurred,but the lack of stamina in consumption and consecutive negative growth in investment suggest that the momentum of growth is waning. With the withdrawal of the expansionary fiscal policy,the U.S. fiscal deficit has shrunk significantly,but the cost of interest payment will increase year by year due to interest rate hikes,and the long-term debt burden may not be sustainable. Recently,the US government introduced the “Inflation Reduction Act”,which is conducive to promoting the US energy transition and climate response,but its role in controlling inflation is almost negligible. As inflation remains high,and the factors causing inflation are gradually shifting from the supply side to the demand side,the Federal Reserve has been forced to continue to raise interest rates substantially. Driven by rising interest rates,the U.S. dollar index entered a relatively strong cycle,U.S. stocks experienced a significant decline,and the U.S. bond yield curve inverted. High inflation,tight labor market and negative real interest rates have left the Fed with very little room to achieve a “soft” landing for the economy.

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    作者简介
    杨子荣:杨子荣,博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究方向:国际金融。
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