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图片名称: Diagram 2 Growth Rates of Major Fixed Assets Investment
出版时间: 2010年01月

China Economic Analysis in 2009 and Outlook in 2010

Ⅰ. A Retrospective Analysis on China’s Economic Situation in 2009

1. In 2009 Global Economy is still suffering from the Consequences of the Financial Crisis and Economic Recession.

Having enjoyed rapid growth at an annual rate of 5% for years,global economy has been confronted with a sharp downturn in 2008,thrown into the worst recession since the Great Depression. Although the governments in the world have been alerted to work together and taken prompt and practical measures to combat the crisis,the negative influence of the global recession is still deepening and the recovery remains fragile and hard,owing to the characteristics of this crisis,such as the extent and scope of the shock thereof,the transmission mechanism of emanating from the financial field to the real economic field which different from other recorded crisis,and the protraction of deleveraging.

a. World’s Major Economies are still under the Impact of the Financial Crisis.

The US economy has shown tentative signs of recovery when it comes to the end of 2009,but the recovery is fragile and weak. In the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009,the US performance in growth rate was quite depressing,declining by 5.4% and 6.4% respectively. And during the second quarter of 2009,things rather improved,but all the same,the US growth rate underwent a decline of 0.7% if converted into annual rate. Although the US economy has achieved a rise of 3.5% in the third quarter,2.2% is related to the contribution of auto sales and house construction which is promoted by the government,and the government expenditure,therefore,has increased by 0.6%. Taking into consideration the present difficulty and the future uncertainty,the Nobel Prize winners in economics Robert Mundell