Trends of International Capital Flow and Their Impact on China and Prevention Thereof
Ⅰ New trends and new characteristics of international capital flow under new situation of international finance
With the changes of the global economy after the financial crisis,the financial situation is inevitably changed. But we also notice that the stability of the existing international financial system and the order of the international capital flow face unprecedented challenges,but the new order and pattern are not fully established. Under such situation and background,the international capital flow shows some new trends and characteristics.
1.The total amount of global capital flow picks up slightly and unevenly,and may grow slowly in the future
Affected by the economic crisis,the total amount of global foreign direct investment(FDI)in 2009 was USD 1.11 trillion which sharply dropped by 37% than USD 1.7 trillion in 2008,and reached USD 1.9 trillion and hit the new record in 2007. The reduction of the multi-national merger and acquisition activities in 2009 was the most significant,and relevant capital flow was USD 240 billion which was reduced by 66% on year-on-year basis. According to the latest research report issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCATD)in June 2010,after experiencing the difficult period in 2009,the global FDI flow in 2010 will gradually recover and will continue to grow in 2011 and 2012. In the first half of 2010,the global FDI picked up slightly but unevenly. It is expected that in 2010,the global inflow will reach above USD 1.2 trillion,further rise to USD 1.3 to 1.5 trillion in 2011,and will grow to USD 1.6 to 2 trillion in 2012. However,the prospect of the foreign direct investment is full of risks and uncertainty,including the weakness of global economic recovery. It is ex