Ⅰ Analysis to 2010 trend characteristics of international commodity price

1.The international commodity price is shocked but increases

Since 2010，the demand for USD hedging has been obvious，the prices for basic metal and other commodity have greatly dropped，and because the economic data from February to April was favorable plus the market liquidity was sufficient，the whole commodity market has been in a better and better situation. Affected by Greece’s debt crisis at the end of April，commodity market re-presented panic，the investors sequentially held USD，gold and bonds were hedged，the liquidity of commodity market was inadequate，and the commodity prices sequentially dropped. Since June 2010，affected by the global monetary easing policy，a new round of general rising of the global commodity price has appeared，the CRB futures price index has raised from 450.24，the relative point on June 4 to 602.29 on November 9，and the futures price index of the international commodity has risen to nearly 33.8% in 5 months. Since mid-November，the price rising promoted by global liquidity has come to an end，the spot and futures indexes have picked up，but the rate is not high and the greatest declination is maintained within 8%. Similar to the trend of the futures price index，the rise of the CRB spot price composite index has become a trend.

Because the commodity price is in USD，the changes of USD are important factors of deciding the trend of the commodity price. The sharp rise of this round of commodity price is closely related to the trend of the USD index. In history，the USD index and the commodity price index have strong negative correlation. Recently，affected by the Ireland’s debt crisis，international demand for USD hedging has increased，