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图片名称: Figure 1 The World Economic Sentiment Indicator(according to the approach of foreign exchange rate with GDP weighting added)
出版时间: 2011年01月

Brief Analysis on the World Economic Sentiment Indicator

After the international financial crisis deteriorated sharply in 2008,the world economy fluctuated significantly. In the second half of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009,the economy of most countries and regions obviously slowed and even the aggregate economic volume decreased,thus causing the first general negative growth of the world economy since the World War Two. In order to inhibit the economic downturn,countries and regions promulgated unprecedented stimulating macro-economic policies,which made major countries and regions to reverse the downward trend in the second and third quarter of 2009 successively and the economy resumed to positive growth. By the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010,the pace of recovery of major economies accelerated evidently. We thus make a brief analysis based on the composite economic sentiment indicator proposed by CCIEE which reflects the running state of major economies.

The world economic sentiment indicator prepared by us is shown in Figure 1,from which we can see that,the world economy declined sharply after the fourth quarter of 2008,which is consistent with the period after the financial crisis;it reached the bottom of the valley in May 2009 and entered into an interval of overcooling,afterwards it started to rebound,which is consistent with the successive rebounding of world major economies in the second and third quarter of 2009. From the fourth quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010,the indicator rose rapidly. To the end of the first quarter of 2010,the indicator has recovered to the middle part of the green light area which usually indicates that the economic operation is relatively normal. However,since the second quarter of 2010,with the maturity of stimulus policies