After the international financial crisis deteriorated sharply in 2008，the world economy fluctuated significantly. In the second half of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009，the economy of most countries and regions obviously slowed and even the aggregate economic volume decreased，thus causing the first general negative growth of the world economy since the World War Two. In order to inhibit the economic downturn，countries and regions promulgated unprecedented stimulating macro-economic policies，which made major countries and regions to reverse the downward trend in the second and third quarter of 2009 successively and the economy resumed to positive growth. By the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010，the pace of recovery of major economies accelerated evidently. We thus make a brief analysis based on the composite economic sentiment indicator proposed by CCIEE which reflects the running state of major economies.

The world economic sentiment indicator prepared by us is shown in Figure 1，from which we can see that，the world economy declined sharply after the fourth quarter of 2008，which is consistent with the period after the financial crisis；it reached the bottom of the valley in May 2009 and entered into an interval of overcooling，afterwards it started to rebound，which is consistent with the successive rebounding of world major economies in the second and third quarter of 2009. From the fourth quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010，the indicator rose rapidly. To the end of the first quarter of 2010，the indicator has recovered to the middle part of the green light area which usually indicates that the economic operation is relatively normal. However，since the second quarter of 2010，with the maturity of stimulus policies in countries like America and Japan the rebounding of the real estate market aborted；the European debt crisis caused obvious adverse impact on the world economic confidence，furthermore the growth of major emerging economies like China and Brazil slowed，thus causing the decline of the indicator，among which the two big economies as America and China slowed significantly. In the second quarter the trend of economic recovery of Germany was relatively good，driving the faster recovery of entire European countries and eliminating the impact of America and China’s decline. Therefore，though the world economic sentiment indicator declined in the second quarter，the extent was slight and the indicator was still at the position of around 50 and located at the middle lower part of the green light area. This suggests that the world economy was still at the normal operation state generally.

Figure 1 The World Economic Sentiment Indicator（according to the approach of foreign exchange rate with GDP weighting added）

Seen from the recent situation of different countries，there is great difference. For the 11 countries for which we prepare the indicator，there is great difference between G7 countries and the “BRICs”，the major emerging economies. Though there is difference among G7 countries，most of their indicator comes out of the area of relatively cold economy but still nears the boundary of the area of relatively cold economy and the area of normal economy. Take America as an example，the indicator rebounded for a time，but recently it has declined and currently it has lowered to an area near the boundary between the relatively cold area and the normal area. The main reason for this is that the unemployment rate of America remained high and the industrial capacity utilization rate has always been lower than the normal level，and the growth rate of indicators like money supply was also lowered. While for emerging economies like China and Brazil，under the influence of strong macro-economic policies，the economy recovered rapidly，and at the beginning of 2010 the indicator recovered to the yellow light area indicating that the economy was relatively hot，and in some months China entered the red light area of relatively hot economy.

Figure 2 America’s Composite Sentiment Indicator

The above facts also show that why the macro-economic policies of countries have obvious difference in 2010. When developed countries like America were beating their brains for how to accelerate the economic recovery，the emerging economies like China，Brazil and India were worrying about whether the economy will be overheated，and in order to inhibit the trend of accelerated inflation，they have tightened the monetary policies successively，and in near term the measures taken by countries like China and Brazil for responding to inflation have received some success，and the indicator has fallen from the upper part of the yellow light area to the green light area. Because the price changes lag behind the changes of composite economic sentiment indicator，so long as the economic operation can be kept as normal state，the excessive price rise can be inhibited.