Northeast Asia seems to have entered a new stage through a transitional phase after the end of the cold war. In the first place, the issue of the Korean Peninsula requires attention. North Korea was in a crisis of dissolution after the death of Kim II Sung. By now, however, it seems to survive even though such crisis has not been overcome. It will have a major impact on the security and prosperity of East Asia the short term.

Secondly, there was East Asia’s remarkable economic development while having faced trouble in its sustainable development. This has been promoted by regional cooperation open to the outside world. Such multilateral cooperation has now been expanded to deal with Asian security issues such as the deterrence and elimination of disputes and conflicts in the region. The ASEAN Regional Forum is one such attempt.

Thirdly, an American presence, even with the cold war over, is essential for stability and development of Asia. The U. S. remains a vital ally for Japan, and the U. S.-Japan Security Treaty will lose none of its importance in this new phase. The U. S. has played a leading role in Asia’s security as well, and there is no other power now capable of assuming this role. The U. S. must further its cooperative relationship with Asia, both economically and politically, and a continued U. S. presence in Asia is essential.

An element in all these factors is the greater prominence of China, the most important issue facing Asia in this new phase. As the third political power in the cold war and the deciding vote in the U. S.-Soviet conflict in Asia, China has come to exert major influence on the security of Asia. This influence has now clearly increased, and China appears headed towards becoming a major power. In what direction China will develop has been one of the important issues which East Asia has paid more attention to.

Japan has been concerned with peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia that includes China, the Korean Peninsula and Russia in order to secure its own peace and prosperity. Japan has taken a positive role in regional affairs as a member of the Asian-Pacific region as well as a nation among advanced democracies. Japan’s position in this region after the end of the cold war has been characterized by three aspects. The first aspect is related to its historical relations with Asia during the Second World War. Big gaps between North East Asia and South East Asia seem to exist in their perception of Japan’s historical performance and image. In the case of South Korea, however, a change could be seen after President Kim’s visit to Japan last October. The second aspect is Japan’s leading role in the Asian economy. This has been reconfirmed among Asian countries through their tough experience to overcome a chain of financial and monetary crises in this region. The third aspect is Japan’s essential role in maintaining regional security while supporting the US presence in this region through the Japan-US Security Treaty.

With such a position, Japan’s diplomacy towards this region has conducted several important policies. The first policy is to make efforts to implement the equal partnership with the United States. Its alliance with the United States is what has taken precedence over all. The second is to give full support to Asian countries to tackle and resolve economic crises. The third is to make an effort to establish a new partnership with South Korea. Based on such a new partnership, both countries have agreed to expand the sphere of bilateral cooperation including the establishment of a free trade area, and the six party talks on regional security issues including the Korean Peninsula. The fourth policy is to deal with North Korea. Japan attempted to deter the missile threat while pursuing an improved relation. The fifth is to sign the peace treaty and resolve the territorial issue with Russia. The sixth is to reach a new stage in the bilateral relationship with China. Japan’s relationship with China for 26 years after 1972 has been one of neighboring friendship having little influence over the region. The new declaration signed during Chairman Jiang Zeming, s visit to Japan last November confirmed the establishment of the partnership of friendship and cooperation for peace and development in East Asia. This suggested a shift of the framework of the Japan-China bilateral relationship from the neighboring one to the multilateral one.

Taking a look at the future of this region from Japan’s standpoint, several factors should be taken into consideration. The first factor is the instability of the Korean Peninsula in the short term. South Korea appears stable in terms of society and politics though having not yet overcome an economic crisis deeply rooted in its economic structure. North Korea will be faced with a possibility of collapse though seemingly recovering from an economic disaster and strengthening Kim’s rule for the meantime.

The second factor lies in the uncertainties of the Chinese future in the longer term. China has developed enough to be ranked as a major power. It refers to itself as one of the four major powers (Russia, EU, Japan and China) that, along with the one super power (the United States), have decisive influence over the international framework after the end of the cold war. Based on China’s foreign policies in the past, two different choices still remain in its future diplomatic direction. One choice is to continue its multidirectional, collaborative diplomacy and its multilateral cooperation with [the other major powers and Asian countries. The other choice is to stick to the hard diplomacy, seeking prestige through its initiative to reject the existing world order and build a new world order. The former choice has become dominant particularly since the reforms and open door polices which required a peaceful international environment and multilateral economic cooperation. However, we still observe the possibility for the latter choice even in recent events. One event is NATO’s bombing against Yugoslavia, which invited China’s strong anti-US nationalism. The other event is China’s response to Taiwan President Lee Denghui’s definition of the cross strait relationship as “the relationship of state-to-state,” even though Beijing was paving the way to an improved relationship between China and the United States.

Judging from these conditions, Japan’s diplomacy in North East Asia must start with the simple fact that maintaining peace and prosperity is Japan’s national interest. Japan must repeatedly show its willingness to make a positive contribution to peace and prosperity in this region. In this regard, the Japan-US alliance remains for the meantime an important asset for Japan’s diplomacy towards Asia.

In making such contribution, Japan must show its determination to cope with its historical relations with this region. Japan has a lot to do in this problem. With this honest determination, Japan must give full support to Asian efforts to overcome economic crises. In this sphere, Japan has done a fairly good job. Along with the Miyazawa Initiative of 30 billion dollars, Japan has offered financial aid amounting to more than 100 billion dollars by the end of 1998. This contribution was positively accepted among East Asian countries. Backed with such achievement, Japan might strengthen its cooperation with other East Asian countries including China so as to discover and implement effective measures to prevent another economic crisis and maintain stable economic growth in East Asia. The free trade zone, internationalized yen and AMF would be among them.

JaPan must also make a contribution to establishing and expanding a cooperative security regime in this region. The establishment of the North East Asia Regional Forum consisting of Japan, China, Russia, United Korea and the United States would be one of the goals for such contribution. Before reaching this goal, a lot of problems and issues are to be tackled. For example, a nuclear free zone in this region must be discussed among the concerned nations. Cooperative peacekeeping forces under the auspice of the United Nations must be organized. A positive engagement with North Korea to bring stability to the Korean Peninsula must be promoted in a scheme to involve Japan and Russia along with the four other parties-South Korea, North Korea, the United State and China. Such engagement policy might offer an international framework to prepare for Korean integration in the future.

In making a contribution to peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia, one of the most important tasks in Japan’s diplomacy is to establish and strengthen its ties with China. China appears headed for either one of two extremes: either it will fall victim to domestic instability and even disorder, or it will emerge as a major power through successful economic development. The former scenario appears unlikely in the near future, considering the remarkable achievement of the economic reforms for the past twenty years, the successful succession of President Jiang Zemin’s leadership to Deng Xiaoping, and the expanded social foundation to maintain stability among the people through the improvement of their living standard.

For the sake of convenience, the latter scenario seems to be divided into two possibilities. The one is that China will recognize that its continued economic development requires economic cooperation with the rest of Asia and peace in the region; China would become a “responsible power”, actively contributing to the establishment and maintenance of a stable order in the region. The other is that China’s emergence as a major power through economic development will encourage its aspirations for regional hegemony, with China turning into a “major hegemonic power.” China will certainly become a “responsible power,” but the question remains open as to whether or not it will become a “hegemonic power” threatening neighboring countries.

Even now China is, after Japan, Asia’s second largest economic power. Though there may be some twists and turns in the road ahead, China will likely grow even stronger economically. Needless to say, the most preferable for North East Asia is the third scenario. In order to realize this scenario, Japan must work in close collaboration with not only the U. S. but also with other East Asian nations to urge China’s stable development. It is evident that international cooperation has facilitated China’s remarkable changes in the reform and open door era during the 1980s.

Such cooperation seems still indispensable for China’s “desirable” change in the future. This has been an essential part of Japan’s constructive engagement policy toward China. Japan has continued a policy of engagement with China. In so doing, Japan hoped that China would become stable and open to the outside world. Chinese participation in the network of this broad cooperation will promote the “desirable change” in North East Asia.