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如何保持希望
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The new round of strategic and economic dialogue in Beijing witnessed reaffirmation by Presidents Xi Jinping and Obama of building a new model of big-power-relationship between China and the United States. On economics,hope is rising as the two nations recommitting themselves to completing Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) as early as possible. Yet the factors undermining trust and stirring up suspicions still run deep.

Misperceptions about each other’s strategic intentions are wide-spread and on ascendance as East Asia’s security problems are piling up that worry countries both in and outside of the region. Most prominently it is driven home by the recent policy move of the US from decades-long strategic ambiguity to explicit endorsement of Japan’s territorial claims on Diaoyu Islands as well as siding with the Philippine and Vietnam in their maritime disputes with China. A case in point is the sharp remarks by the US Secretary of Defense against China at Shangri-La Dialogue,not to speak of the latest provocative over-flight by US fighter aircraft only 200 meters to a Chinese oil-rig on South China Sea.

“Trust Deficit”is gaining traction with fast-moving negotiations of Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership Agreement(TPP) and Trans-Atlantic Trade and investment Partnership Agreement(TTIP) promoted heavily by the US that specifically exclude China,the 2nd largest economy.

Dark clouds are gathering on the horizon for the future of China-US relations. To be sure,the possibility of direct military confrontation between China and the US is nil. But it cannot be said for certain that two countries will not be forced into a conflict by a“third party”. To keep hope alive and avoid such a pessimistic outcome,China and the US ought to reduce“trust deficit”by engaging in formulating a common strategy and a road-map to match for the coming decade.“There is hope,there are ways.”Main elements to be considered,inter alia,should include the following:

Firstly,on strategic level,consolidating the consensus on building the new relationship between big powers with concrete and parallel positive actions by both sides. What President Xi said about the Pacific having enough space for both China and the US to grow epitomizes the nature of this relationship.

For that purpose,two countries need to speed up in-depth discussions both official and private to identify true red lines so as to delineate parameters and establishing ground rules,with particular reference to East Asia security,within which one will not step on the toes of the other,thus providing a level of comfort or strategic space necessary to build up trust.

Secondly there is urgency in establishing mechanisms that can handle or manage possible frictions and conflicts so as to prevent them from escalating into crises that can rock the boat or even capsize it. This should involve both diplomats and military personnel. Real-time direct hot lines ought to be in place as soon as feasible.

Thirdly,the US should desist from taking sides in territorial and maritime disputes between China and her East Asian neighbors and return to the time-tested strategic ambiguity. Moreover it needs to restrain its allies such as Japan not to challenge or try to overthrow the regional order cemented after the tragedy of WWII. History may not be repeated.

China and ASEAN need to double their efforts in formulating the code of conduct for the South China Sea while exercising restraint in the meantime. China will continue her military modernization as required by her legitimate defense needs. Needless to say,China will increase transparency in that respect.

Last but not the least,China and the US should act and consult in partnership to do more in improving global governance and provide public goods together wherever possible. One example could be cross-fertilization of existing FTA negotiations. China needs to be fully involved in negotiations on TPP and TIPP. ASEAN and China probably should consider the US participation in discussions on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership negotiations.

The G2 concept has been rejected by both sides,but close cooperation and consultation between two biggest economies is indispensible to tackle such global issues as climate change,global financial regulations,energy security,food security,health problems in Africa and currently raging Middle East crises.

This should be part and parcel of the afore-mentioned new relationship,for these globally coordinated efforts will enhance tremendously the scope of corroboration between two countries,thus laying solid foundation brick-by-brick for the edifice of future China-US relations of cooperation.

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