In 2014,China will embark on the new Maritime Silk Road that historically had contributed to China’s flourishing economic ties with her neighbors in South-East Asia and beyond.
South-East Asia is an intricate part of this ancientMaritime Silk Road that originated in Quanzhou,now Fujian Province in Southern part of China. History is a mirror. The fastest growth of bilateral trade and investment for China in the past decade is with ASEAN. Statistics show that total trade between China and ASEAN reached 400 billion US$ in 2012,a five-fold increase in 10 years and two-way investments exceeded 100 billion US$,a three-fold increase in the same period. The first 11 months of 2013 marked 10.9% growth over 2012. For the updated China-ASEAN FTA the target is set for 1 trillion US$ in bilateral trade and additional 150 billion US$ in two-way investments by 2020.
Financial cooperation,swap of currencies,creation of an infrastructure bank and increased connectivity are what is expected to come within the undated FTA. The Maritime Silk Road will inject new meaning and new life to the expansion of economic ties between China and ASEAN members in the years to come.
For historical and geographic reasons,there has been a large concentration of Chinese who migrated to South-East Asia. Though hard figures are difficult to come by,it is estimated that the total number runs to 30 million or more. And they are economically well-off. Based on“2009 Report on Global Overseas Chinese Business”,total assets of overseas Chinese business globally are about 3.9 trillion US$ of which 1.1 to 1.2 trillion are in the hands of Overseas Chinese in South-East Asia. Of the top 500 global overseas Chinese companies,about one third isin ASEAN countries. Moreover,70% of the companies listed in South-East Asia stock markets are Overseas-Chinese-owned.
Overseas Chinese have been residing abroad for centuries. Distance apart,they are linked with China through the rich and colorful Chinese culture. They are the“natural bridge”connecting China and other countries withtheir unique advantage of being imbued with local politics,economics and culture that come in handy in exchanges between China and the countries they reside in.To illustrate,since China’s opening-up in late 1970s over 60% of FDI into China are from overseas Chinese including those in Hongkong,Macao and Taiwan. With the concept of building new Maritime Silk Road being implemented this year,Overseas Chinese can play an essential role.
The first role that comes to mind would be“lubricant”. They can help move the excess capacity of China’s manufacturing industry into ASEAN countries to build infrastructure and manufacturing capacity there. It will be an easily win-win situation wherein China’s excess in steel and iron,cement,flat-penal glass,aluminum and ship-building can be assimilated and become an essential part of local industry. Many large businesses owned by Overseas Chinese in South-East Asia have extensive business network in addition to their capital and technology which can be of great assistanceto Chinese companies in their efforts to implement the“go-out strategy”.
It is reported that since 2011 Indonesia,Thailand and other ASEAN nations have made public their plans for long-term investment in infrastructure and it is estimated at 1.5 trillion US$ between 2011 to 2020. It is highly possible and desirable for Chinese companies in liaison with Overseas Chinese business to co-invest in the construction of ports,railways and highways as well as in energy sector.
Moreover,ASEAN is China’s biggest overseas contract construction market with a return of 16.58 billion US$ for 2011 that constituted 16% of China’s total. Apart from Singapore and Brunei,other SAEAN members are still in the process of industrialization that opens up huge space for contract construction in theirindustrialization,urbanization and infrastructure connectivity. Therefore the cooperation between Chinese mainland and Overseas Chinese companies in the above-mentioned fields is potentially full of opportunities.
The opportunities for RMB to become currency in trade settlement and financing as well as investment and eventually as reserve currency are very much real in South-East Asia where RMB has already become an international currency next only to the US Dollar.
From 2009 when pilot project was launched for RMB as cross-border trade settlement currency to the end of June 2013,the amount of RMB in settling trade between China and ASEAN countries has reached 1.12 trillion US$ with increases year by year. The trade volume between China and Asia plus“BRICS”countries was 12.5 trillion RMB,taking up 57.2% of China’s total in 2012. The potential is huge for RMB to gain in settling trade between China and Asia,in particular ASEAN. Thecurrency swap agreements up to date involve 1.4 trillion US$.
Overseas Chinese business in South-East Asia not only occupies a critical position in the economy and finance of ASEAN countries,but has also invested heavily in China.They are part and parcel of the booming trade between China and ASEAN members like Singapore,Indonesia,Malaysia,Thailand and the Philippines. Should the Chinese Government give overseas Chinese businesspreferential policies such as permission to open Overseas Chinese banks to bring their role as“bridges”or“lubricants”into full play,RMB’s moves towards regionalization will be steady and faster.
To reinstitute Maritime Silk Road also needs intellectual support and new ideas. These can be gleaned from Overseas Chinese think tanks and experts in South-East Asia as well as from Hongkong,Macau and Taiwan,and with a wider perspective from other parts of the world too. These are China’s treasure boxes wherein one can find“ideal solutions to almost all issues”,as it is described in ancient Chinese novel“The Legend of Three Kingdoms”. The soon-to-be-convened Boao Asia Forum will be featuring Maritime Silk Road and other concepts to develop Asian economic cooperation. It is learned that there will be a session devoted to the topic on Maritime Silk Roader—Overseas Chinese Business in South-East Asia. Much hope has been pinned on its outcome.
It is a major initiative by President Xi of China to build Maritime Silk Road together with China’s neighbors in particular ASEAN member. The proposal has been widely hailed in the region to benefit all. Chinese economy is well on its way to sustained and moderately fast growth for years to come and the economic prospect for ASEAN is similarly bright with the latest figure by ASEAN Secretariat that put ASEAN’s growth at 5.7% in 2012 as compared with the year before. The strategic role to be played by Overseas Chinese business community in this great endeavor can’t be overemphasized.