欧洲移民发展报告（2023～2024）
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中文摘要
《欧洲移民发展报告（2023～2024）》是国际移民研究中心持续关注欧洲移民发展的研究成果。除来自广东外语外贸大学、广东省民族宗教研究院和国内其他高校的研究人员外，本书还邀请了欧洲高校的专家参与编写，从政治学、经济学、社会学和西方语言与文化等多个学科开展综合研究。
2022～2023年，欧洲国际移民流动频次基本恢复至疫情前水平，甚至一些国家的国际移民规模超过了疫情前的水平。难民庇护申请数量显著增长，审批通过率明显提升；各种类别的居留签证签发量明显增加，特别是就业类别的签证签发量在各个欧洲国家基本上都有增长；另外，无有效签证的非常规移民在各个欧洲国家普遍存在，特别是在境内查处的非法滞留的移民数量有明显上升，遣返难度大。
受俄乌冲突的影响，大量乌克兰人进入欧盟国家寻求庇护，欧盟成员国为逃离乌克兰的难民提供了临时保护，允许避难者进入欧盟成员国，并在居住国获得居住许可。同时，乌克兰人在欧盟国家还可以申请包括家庭团聚、就业、教育、难民庇护等各个类型的签证和居留许可，其中超过50%为就业签证。
后疫情时代，欧洲国家在政治、经济、社会、国际合作等多层面面临挑战。经济层面，多数国家面临技术性劳动力和高端人才短缺与“无技能”或“少技能”移民和难民难以匹配就业的矛盾；政治层面，极右翼政党崛起，煽动民粹主义、本土主义与仇外心理；社会层面，在对乌克兰难民的积极和慷慨援助后，欧洲民众开始出现“社会疲劳”。
本年度的欧洲移民发展报告主题为后疫情时代的欧洲国际移民，包括1篇总报告、11篇区域国别报告、4篇专题报告及1篇欧洲移民大事记。主题报告侧重分析2022～2023年欧洲移民的发展趋势和欧盟移民管理政策及所面临的变革与挑战。研究认为在政治、经济、社会层面上，欧洲国家在移民管理上面临多重困难，包括劳动力短缺与移民劳动力技能不匹配问题；极右翼政党崛起，反移民思潮影响广泛；难民大量涌入后的社会疲劳症等。加强一体化是后疫情时代欧盟难民和移民的治理方向；恢复经济是后疫情时代难民和移民融入的基础；和平发展是解决欧洲战争难民困境的治本之策。
区域国别报告选择了意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、希腊、法国、瑞士、奥地利、德国、波兰、英国和瑞典作为重点研究对象，介绍了2022～2023年这些国家移民发展和管理的最新状况。各国数据和分析显示，欧洲国际移民流动规模基本恢复至疫情前的水平，特别是就业类移民数量在各国都有增长；另外，非常规移民数量有明显增长，意大利和希腊尤为突出，遣返难度大。受俄乌冲突的影响，欧洲各国接收的难民数量都在增长。乌克兰难民在欧洲的就业率普遍高于其他移民和难民群体，但就业岗位与其技能不匹配的状况普遍存在。
专题报告分别考察了后疫情时代欧洲政治、经济和社会状况的改变与移民的关系及影响。在政治领域，极右翼政党在多个欧洲国家崛起，投票率上升，对执政党的影响也越来越明显；反移民是极右翼政党的核心，移民成为欧洲经济、政治和社会问题的“替罪羊”。在经济领域，欧洲各国经济陷入衰退风险，面临经济复苏乏力和能源价格飙升、通货膨胀高企、劳动力市场疲软以及出口增长乏力等多重问题，移民和难民规模的增长加重了政府的财政负担。在社会层面，欧洲日益严重的人口结构老龄化伴随劳动力短缺和人才短缺等问题，促使各国在移民政策上不断变革，特别是在国际教育和科学技术领域，采取各种措施加大力量吸引国际学生和促进人才移民。
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