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2010年中国社会形势分析与预测

书 名: 2010年中国社会形势分析与预测
英 文 名: SOCIETY OF CHINA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST (2010)
作 者:  汝信 陆学艺 李培林 陈光金 许欣欣 李炜
I S B N: 978-7-5097-1212-2
丛 书 名: 社会蓝皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  社会分析 社会预测 中国 2009 2010
出版日期: 2009-12-01

中文摘要

本报告是中国社会科学院“社会形势分析与预测”课题组的2009年年度分析报告(社会蓝皮书),由中国社会科学院社会学研究所组织研究机构专家、高校学者以及国家政府研究人员撰写。

本报告立足于国家权威的统计数据或严格科学的社会调查,全面跟踪2009年中国社会发展进程,深入解读中国未来的社会发展趋势,深刻分析影响中国社会发展的重大事件和热点问题。

本报告指出,2009年,中国努力克服国际金融危机的影响,正逐步从危机冲击中恢复过来。新中国成立60周年重大庆典和天安门广场的辉煌阅兵式,展现了我国60年建设的伟大成就,反映了改革开放30多年的巨大变化,也标示了未来30年发展的新起点。2009年全年国内生产总值增长达到8%以上,城乡居民收入稳定增长,居民消费价格总水平涨幅4%左右;城镇新增就业可达1100多万人,就业形势的紧张得到控制;覆盖城乡的社会保障体系建设快速推进;粮食生产再创历史新高,实现近40年来首次连续6年增产。但是,收入差距扩大趋势尚未扭转,扩大国内消费受到限制;就业问题依然突出,劳动争议增多;环境保护面临各种困难,发展低碳经济任务艰巨。然而,从经济复苏、就业恢复、消费增长、物价稳定等经济社会发展的关键指标来看,中国将率先走出国际金融危机的阴影,进入发展的新成长阶段。

本报告认为,中国进入工业化、城市化发展的中期,破除城乡二元结构、实现城乡一体化成为发展的新要求,人民生活进入大众消费阶段,国民教育进入大众教育阶段,社会保障进入构建覆盖全民体系的新阶段,这些都标志着中国进入发展的新成长阶段。所谓新成长阶段,一方面意味着我国经济增长速度将重新进入8%以上的新一轮增长周期,另一方面意味着新一轮增长周期的推动力,与过去相比将发生明显变化,将更加依赖于产业结构升级、经济社会结构转型和国内消费增长。

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2009年是中华人民共和国成立60周年,中国举行了盛大庆典仪式,同时2009年也是中国经济社会发展受到国际金融危机深刻影响的一年。中国快速采取了一系列重大措施,保增长、保民生、保稳定,有效地抵御和化解了国际金融危机的影响。2009年全年国内生产总值增长达到8%以上,城乡居民收入稳定增长,居民消费价格总水平涨幅4%左右;城镇新增就业可达1100多万人,就业形势的紧张得到控制;覆盖城乡的社会保障体系建设快速推进;粮食生产再创历史新高,实现近40年来首次连续6年增产。但是,收入差距问题依然严峻,扩大内需受到限制;就业问题依然突出;环境保护任务艰巨。然而,从经济复苏、就业恢复、消费增长、物价稳定等经济社会发展的关键指标来看,中国将率先走出国际金融危机的阴影,进入发展的新成长阶段。这一方面意味着我国经济增长速度将重新进入8%以上的新一轮增长周期,另一方面意味着新一轮增长周期的推动力,与过去相比将发生明显变化,将更加依赖于产业结构升级、经济社会结构转型和国内消费增长。

,AbstractEN:

2009 marked the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China with a grand ceremony held in Beijing,China. Meanwhile,China was deeply affected by the international financial crisis. In response,a number of prompt measures were taken by the Chinese government to ensure economic growth,people’s livelihoods and social stability,which effectively reduced the impact of the international financial crisis. The GDP growth of 2009 exceeded 8%;income of urban and rural residents grew steadily;the overall level of consumer price increased about 4%. With 11 million of new jobs created in urban areas,the pressure of employment was lessened. Development of the social security system which would cover urban and rural areas advanced rapidly. New record of grain production was set,which made the first consecutive growth for 6 years over 40 years. However,the income disparity remains significant;increase of domestic demand is limited;employment issue is still serious;environmental protection is challenging. Yet,based on the key indicators of economic and social development,such as economic recovery,employment reactivation,consumption growth and price stability,China will lead to recover from the international financial crisis and move into a new stage of growth. On the one hand,China will resume a new cycle of GDP growth rate over 8%;on the other hand,there will be dramatic change in the driving force of the growth. Compared with the past,the new stage will be marked by upgrading of the industrial structure,transformation of the economic and social structure,and expansion of the domestic demand.

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