俄罗斯发展报告（2024）
中文摘要
俄乌冲突的长期化及与西方对抗的尖锐化是影响2023年俄罗斯局势发展的主要因素。在此背景下，俄罗斯政府一方面加强国内舆论控制和爱国主义宣传，引导民众支持其在乌克兰实施的特别军事行动，维持国内政治社会稳定；另一方面调整经济和对外政策，突出强调主权经济的建设和发展，为经济主体适应西方制裁下的生存与发展创造条件，同时为突破西方的经济和外交封锁，努力加强与对俄友好的“世界多数”国家之间的外交关系，俄罗斯国内形势和对外关系出现许多新特点。
在政治方面，俄罗斯总统普京对西方资本主义、新自由主义和新殖民主义继续进行严厉批判，强调俄罗斯应维护国家主权和传统价值观。为应对当前的复杂局面、确保政治安全和即将到来的2024年总统大选顺利举行，俄罗斯完善了以总统权力为核心的公共权力体系、以文化主权为核心的意识形态体系和以防范非政府组织为核心的社会管控体系。2023年俄罗斯如期进行了地方选举，妥善处理了“瓦格纳集团事件”，为2024年总统大选创造了良好条件。
在经济方面，面对西方制裁不断升级，俄罗斯政府继续调整经济政策，通过调控关键利率等手段维持宏观经济环境的基本稳定；通过调整和使用国家福利基金，弥补了联邦财政预算缺口；通过发展与对俄友好国家的经贸往来，获得了经济发展所需的资金和技术；通过出台支持实体经济发展的诸多措施，为市场主体开展经济活动创造良好条件。2023年俄罗斯经济维持平稳增长，民生保障得到进一步增强，社会基本稳定。
在对外关系方面，一方面，俄乌冲突久拖不决造成俄罗斯与西方关系持续恶化，美国、欧盟等国家和组织继续加大对俄制裁力度，2023年推出了新的制裁措施，俄罗斯与西方关系基本处于隔绝状态，反对西方霸权成为俄罗斯对外政策的主轴之一；另一方面，俄罗斯外交继续“转向东方”，并与“世界多数”对俄友好国家建立新的关系体系，试图以此突破西方封锁，寻求外交新空间。
面对百年变局和动荡的国际地区形势，2023年中俄关系始终保持健康稳定发展，沿着正确的方向稳步前行，双方政治互信进一步深化，战略协作愈加紧密，互利合作不断取得新成果，双边贸易额提前达成2000亿美元目标，体育交流年圆满收官，两国关系的物质和民意基础更加牢固。
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