亚太地区发展报告（2023）
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中文摘要
2022年，在新冠疫情、乌克兰危机和发达经济体紧缩政策的影响下，全球经济增速放缓，但亚太经济体需求强劲，经济发展具有较强内生动力。数字技术通过影响跨国公司在亚太地区的价值链布局，成为促进地区经济增长和增强供应链韧性的重要力量，提升了亚太经济体的全球价值链参与水平。随着《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）的落地和“印太经济框架”（IPEF）的提出，亚太地区内部经贸活动有望得到加强，但是在经贸规则方面，特别是在数字经济治理领域呈现“碎片化”状态，亚太地区经济合作的制度性与路径性竞争趋势日益凸显。
2022年，亚太地区大国博弈与主要行为体之间的关系重构推动地区秩序加速重塑。美国拜登政府持续推进“印太战略”，强化“印太”盟伴体系建设，不仅加大对亚太地区外交、军事和经济等多个领域的战略投入力度，还以“印太战略”为总纲，持续加强与地区盟友的双边、三边以及美日印澳“四边机制”等合作。美国加大对华战略竞争力度、乌克兰危机等多重因素相互叠加，推动亚太各方进行以“选边站队”为主要特征的战略调整，使地区安全秩序走向不确定性加大。一方面，日本、澳大利亚、印度等国继续调整本国安全战略，地区内主要力量间的关系出现新变化；另一方面，东盟重塑战略自主的努力初见成效，东盟内部“统一性”得到加强，其区域“中心地位”得以彰显。
共建“一带一路”倡议十周年取得丰硕成果。十年来，“一带一路”倡议成为深受国际社会普遍欢迎的重要国际公共产品和国际合作平台。在中国与各方的共同努力下，“一带一路”建设的顶层设计不断完善，“朋友圈”不断扩大，务实合作不断深化，在绿色、数字、廉洁、健康等领域取得丰硕成果。在绿色丝绸之路下，绿色投资、绿色金融、绿色基建和应对气候变化等绿色发展重点领域取得重要进展；在数字丝绸之路下，数字经济、数字基础设施、数字产业链建设深入推进；在廉洁丝绸之路下，廉洁成效宣传、廉洁风险防控、廉洁机制化合作得到持续加强；在健康丝绸之路下，卫生健康贸易投资、跨境医疗合作、各国传统医学传承得到不断发展。
2022年，在地区秩序重塑进程中，亚太地区面临的不确定性和不稳定性有所增加。尽管受到新冠疫情、乌克兰危机和极端天气等多重因素影响，亚太地区政治局势总体上保持相对稳定，但是旧的政治难题依然存在，新的热点问题不时浮现。在亚太地区内，美国、日本等部分主要发达国家出现政治不稳定因素。尚未从新冠疫情中复苏的发展中国家普遍面临粮食危机、能源危机等挑战，经济社会脆弱性进一步凸显。
展望未来，全球需求减弱带来的压力将对亚太地区经济前景造成不利影响，亚洲经济发展仍然面临较大下行风险；大国博弈将在多个领域展开，安全形势不确定性增加；部分国家面临来自政治、经济、社会等层面的稳定性风险挑战；区域经济合作机制分化趋势将愈加明显。
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