拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告（2023～2024）
书 名： 拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告（2023～2024）
英 文 名： ANNUAL REPORT ON LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN （2023-2024）
作 者： 柴瑜 主编; 刘维广 副主编
I S B N： 978-7-5228-5268-3
丛 书 名：
关 键 词： 拉丁美洲和加勒比 发展模式 多元外交 中拉合作 人文交流
出版时间： 2025年06月
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中文摘要
2023～2024年，全球变革趋势持续演化，拉美地区在内外交困中艰难前行。本报告系统分析、总结2023年以来拉美形势的新变化、新特点及其成因与发展趋势，认为2023年以来拉美形势不容乐观，表现为四个突出特点：新一轮左翼浪潮略显后劲不足，政局总体稳定但局部动荡时有发生；经济增长动力不足，整体表现不佳；社会发展低迷不振，移民和安全问题突出；外交选择呈多元化趋势，但总体上动态平衡战略仍为主流。展望未来，拉美政治左右翼竞争、经济增长低迷以及社会冲突加剧的局面恐将进一步持续，外部冲击以及内部矛盾相互交织也将增加地区动荡的风险。
2023年以来，新一轮左翼浪潮略显后劲不足，阿根廷等国右翼势力在选举中获胜，挑战拉美左翼20多年来的发展模式。拉美左翼继续联合自强，巴西左翼重新执政为拉美一体化提供了新的契机。墨西哥左翼政权的巩固和阿根廷极右翼的崛起预示发展模式的竞争逐渐成为地区政治竞争的重要内容。拉美政治生态凸显均衡化、碎片化和复杂化特征，导致政治稳定性有所下降。
2023年以来，拉美地区经济衰退虽有所缓解，但受宏观失衡以及全球经济增长乏力、气候变化等内外部因素影响，绝大部分拉美和加勒比国家的财政、货币政策空间有限，内需不振，外需不稳。由于经济增长动力不足以及政策空间有限，拉美经济表现不及世界其他地区。
在政治动荡和经济不景气的影响下，拉美社会发展低迷不振。贫困、就业等社会指标没有明显改善，减贫和创造就业对经济发展的推动力不足。贫困状况恢复至疫情前水平，但减贫成效不足叠加收入差距加大使地区社会冲突风险提升。移民和有组织犯罪等问题越发突出，加剧了社会矛盾。
拉美国家延续多元和务实的外交策略，对外关系呈现多点联动、动态平衡的显著特征。拉美地区政治生态已扭转此前的政治对立局面，集体身份意识重新得到强化。同时，域外大国对拉美国家的关注度上升。拉美国家积极维护地区自主性，加强与全球南方国家合作，维护世界多边秩序。中拉关系不断提升，中拉经贸合作对拉美国家抑制宏观失衡、稳定经济增长发挥了作用。
本年度专题报告以中拉文明互鉴为主题。报告认为，新时代中拉人文交流将助力中拉命运共同体构建，全球文明倡议为中拉人文交流指明了方向。中拉人文交流可助力社会资本积累，有利于中拉构建社会交流网络、互惠性规范并增强互信。中拉工业文明的交流与互鉴已逐渐成为双方文明交流的重要组成部分，在此过程中新质生产力得到了促进和发展，特别是“数字丝绸之路”和“绿色丝绸之路”已成为中拉合作的新亮点和增长点。本报告还探讨了中拉在数字政府领域的发展状况以及中拉数字政府在包容性与可持续性方面的差异和进展，并就中拉相关的制度、技术、基础设施以及人才等方面的交流与合作提出了若干建设性思路。
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