欧洲移民发展报告（2024～2025）
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中文摘要
《欧洲移民发展报告（2024～2025）》是国际移民研究中心持续关注欧洲移民发展的研究成果。研究团队成员来自广东外语外贸大学、广东省民族宗教研究院和国内其他高校，皮书主编方还邀请了欧洲高校的专家参与编写。研究团队成员从政治学、经济学、社会学、西方语言与文化和国际关系等多个角度开展综合研究。
2023～2024年，欧洲国际移民流动呈现新特点。从国际人口流动的规模来看，2023～2024年欧洲国际移民总量增加，但多数国家接收难民庇护申请的数量下降，特别是德国、法国、瑞典等主要接收国的庇护申请数量均有明显下降。总体上，欧洲国家长期居留许可的签发数量增加，持长期签证的移民数量明显增加，其中持家庭团聚类签证的移民人数最多，务工就业类移民人数为次多，持教育留学类签证的移民人数占比最少。外国出生人口在欧洲总人口中的占比持续增长，归化入籍的移民规模不断扩大。
当前，右翼政党在欧洲各国的影响力提升，在欧洲议会、国家议会和地方议会中的席位增加，这推动了欧洲国家移民政策的变革。欧洲国家的移民政策出现了右倾的趋势，越来越强调限制移民规模、管控移民构成、管治非正规移民、加强移民遣返离境、促进就业、推进移民的社会融入。欧洲移民管理的变革体现了欧洲政治生态的变化，也体现了欧洲的经济发展、外交策略和社会态度转变对移民政策的影响。
《欧洲移民发展报告（2024～2025）》的主题为欧洲国际移民管理变革，包括一篇总报告、十二篇国别与区域报告、四篇专题报告及两篇附录。总报告侧重分析2023～2024年欧洲国际移民流动状况、欧洲各国移民管理变革及其影响与挑战，以及欧洲国际移民的未来发展趋势。总报告指出移民问题与欧洲政治、经济、外交和社会情绪的关系越来越紧密。在政治层面，移民问题成为右翼民粹主义势力扩大其政治影响的核心议题。在经济层面，欧洲劳动力市场对移民的依赖程度加深，但数字化转型加剧了移民就业的困难。在外交层面，移民外交成为欧盟加强内部一体化和发展对外关系的重要方式，但它面临多重困境。在社会层面，移民问题催化了公众对“他者”的排斥心理，反移民社会情绪蔓延。如何在变革中加强移民流动管理和保障移民权利成为欧洲移民管理的难题。
国别与区域报告以意大利、西班牙、希腊、法国、瑞士、德国、奥地利、比利时、荷兰、波兰、英国和北欧国家作为研究重点，介绍了2023～2024年这些国家移民发展和管理的最新状况。各国数据和分析显示，欧洲国际移民虽然流动速度放缓，但其规模持续扩大；另外，正规移民和非正规移民并存。受政治、经济、外交和社会情绪等因素影响，欧洲国家的移民管理均有一定变革，多数国家收紧移民政策，限制移民规模，加强非正规移民管理，推进移民的社会融入。
专题报告分别考察了当代欧洲政治、经济、外交与社会状况的改变与移民的关系及影响。在政治领域，2024年欧盟及欧洲国家议会选举结果表明，中右翼党团和极右翼党团势力持续增强，中间派政党生存空间受到挤压，政党格局碎片化和“右转”趋势常态化更加明显。在外交领域，欧盟通过“移民外交”将移民治理融入外交战略，以应对中东、北非冲突，经济不平等问题以及气候变化引发的移民和难民潮。在经济和社会领域，数字化转型导致移民群体面临严重的数字鸿沟，社会不平等问题凸显，这给欧洲社会经济稳定与移民治理带来新的挑战。
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