北极地区发展报告（2024～2025）
| 书 名： |
北极地区发展报告（2024～2025） |
| 英 文 名： |
REPORT ON ARCTIC REGION DEVELOPMENT （2024-2025）
|
| 作 者： |
刘惠荣 主编;陈奕彤张佳佳 副主编 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5228-6541-6 |
| 丛 书 名： |
|
| 关 键 词： |
|
| 出版时间： |
2025年12月 |
中文摘要
2024年，大国博弈重塑北极秩序，地区安全风险上升，多边合作机制效能受限。随着北极资源可利用性提升，各国围绕公域利用、资源开发、环境保护和军事安全的博弈加剧。北极理事会仍处于“有限恢复”状态，挪威作为轮值主席国试图推动北极可持续发展议程，但大国竞争阴影挥之不去。与此同时，北极治理行为体纷纷调整政策，加拿大强化主权主张、格陵兰寻求战略自主、以美国为首的北约与俄罗斯的军事对峙持续升级，北极成为新的战略前沿。特朗普再次执政为北极治理带来更大的不确定性。
本书总报告对北极公域治理面临的新挑战进行系统分析。在百年未有之大变局中，北极地区已走过相对和平的科学探索期，进入了科技与资源竞争期。2024～2025年北极公域治理的态势发生转变。就北冰洋大陆架划界与深海矿产资源开发而言，200海里外的大陆架划界与国际海底区域在地理上相互排斥，反映了沿海国主权扩张与全球公共资源权益分配的冲突，环北冰洋国家间关于大陆架外部界限主张的互动呈现竞争与妥协的复杂博弈态势。就中北冰洋公海渔业治理而言，治理理念和治理机制都得以进一步完善。就空天部署而言，各国正普遍运用无人机遥感与卫星监测系统，旨在构建“空—天—海”一体化的多维空间的态势感知体系，以提升对北极全域的监控与管制能力。总之，科学认知深化与技术装备创新在北极政策制定与规则主导中日益重要。
在北极治理方面，北极治理行为体的政策调整和实践影响了北极治理整体走向。挪威在2023～2025年担任北极理事会轮值主席国期间，通过新白皮书确立了五大政策目标，将主权行使与环境保护义务相结合。加拿大则于2024年颁布最新版北极战略——《加拿大北极外交政策》，聚焦于维护加拿大主权、通过务实外交促进加拿大利益、在北极治理和应对多边挑战方面发挥领导作用、采用更具包容性的北极外交方法四大支柱，呈现重点关注北极传统安全领域、阵营化的地缘政治策略、与美国北极战略保持协同的特点，旨在应对乌克兰危机升级后北极地缘形势的变化。此外，格陵兰自治政府于2024年8月出台《2024—2033年外交、安全和国防战略》，通过自主外交积极提升自身在北极治理中的地位。
在北极安全方面，后北约东扩时期北极地区的军事化进程加速。随着本轮北约扩员战略的全面落地，北约成员国显著增加在极地的高寒作战训练频率，并加速部署适用于北极环境的先进武器系统。在此背景下，北极地区的大国互动模式、地区安全架构以及全球战略平衡，均面临前所未有的考验。此外，在美国大选背景下，特朗普再次执政，延续第一任期“美国优先”策略，给原住民组织带来治理参与困境。
在北极合作方面，北极矿产合作和气候合作都取得了积极成果。但大国竞争和资源开发需求仍制约北极合作进程，如何在开发与保护之间寻求平衡，成为北极治理的长期难题。未来，北极发展将取决于各国能否在战略竞争中找到利益交汇点，推动可持续治理。
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