法国发展报告（2025）
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中文摘要
2024年，俄乌冲突延宕，法德分歧加剧，大洋彼岸“美国优先”思潮卷土重来。法国社会内部的撕裂和分化同样有增无减，并一度陷入严重的政治危机。法国执政精英一方面努力推进既定执政议程，另一方面相机行事，通过审慎或大胆的政策调整应对多维度冲击和考验。
在内政层面，最重大的冲击莫过于马克龙2024年6月做出的备受争议的提前解散国民议会的决定。马克龙在随后的提前选举中失去议会多数，落实国内议程的能力遭到严重削弱。非建制派政党的势力大幅增长，法国政坛形成“三足鼎立”格局，总理府四易其主进一步损害了政府的民意基础。巴尼耶政府执政不满3个月就遭弹劾倒台，而接替的贝鲁政府同样举步维艰。法国陷入政治动荡期。在一定意义上，第五共和国正面临一场政体危机而不仅仅是政治危机。
经济领域的挑战同样不可小觑。法国依然面临严重的财政赤字问题。与此相关，法国以“经济主权”之名行保护主义之实，推动欧盟出台对华电车高关税政策，以保护法国本土汽车产业。不过，法国2024年的经济增长相对亮眼，法国民众的购买力也并未出现大幅滑坡。巴黎奥运会的成功举行也为法国加分不少，尽管开幕式的部分环节引发争议。
在对外政策层面，特朗普的回归对于法国而言既是挑战也是机遇。法国需要直面“美国优先”政策对跨大西洋关系、欧洲安全架构和全球经济秩序的冲击，并与欧洲盟友共同探索对策。与此同时，法国有望推进欧洲战略自主议程，设法在安全、经济等领域塑造一种更为平衡的欧美关系。在亚太，在“印太战略”框架下，法国持续深化与印度的战略协同合作。印度已成为法国在印太地区的重要战略合作伙伴与优先经贸对象。在中东，法国在谴责哈马斯、支持以色列自卫权的同时，呼吁以色列遵守国际法和尊重“两国方案”，力求在站队美国对以政策和展示独立性之间保持一定的平衡，以维护法国在阿拉伯世界的影响。
法国在非洲的传统地位面临考验。自2022年以来法国已被迫从多个西非国家撤军。法国调解卢旺达与刚果（金）冲突未果，也凸显其传统影响力衰退。法国目前在西非已转向小规模、弹性军事部署模式，并强调非洲国家能力建设和合作网络多样化。在西撒哈拉问题上，法国抛弃“战略模糊”政策，明确站队摩洛哥。尽管面临反法情绪攀升、英语教育扩张等挑战，法国仍致力于维护和提升法国高等教育体系在非洲的优势地位。法国同时推进向非洲非法语国家的战略转向。
在内外挑战交织、战略意外层出不穷的动荡时代，法国正致力于在政治、经济、军事等多个领域以及亚欧非等多个方向构建足够的大国韧性，捍卫法国的全球大国地位和雄心。
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分报告
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