亚太地区发展报告（2024）
| 书 名： |
亚太地区发展报告（2024） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF ASIA-PACIFIC （2024）
|
| 作 者： |
沈铭辉 主编;中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院 组织编写 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5228-5570-7 |
| 丛 书 名： |
|
| 关 键 词： |
|
| 出版时间： |
2025年07月 |
中文摘要
2023年，亚太地区经济体在全球发展前景不确定的情况下实现经济强劲增长，在全球价值链中的参与度亦出现显著反弹。特别是亚太地区发展中经济体的增长速度明显加快；亚太地区一些经济体的高通货膨胀局面得到进一步控制，消费快速复苏；亚太地区发展中经济体的金融环境趋于稳定，经济复苏基础进一步巩固。《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）全面生效后，区域内投资持续增长，释放了亚太区域经济活力，进一步推动了亚太区域价值链的深度融合。
2023年，亚太地区政治局势呈现总体稳定与局部动荡交织的复杂局面。政治极化、军人干政、大国竞争、武装冲突、恐怖主义、巴以冲突外溢效应等成为2023年影响亚太地区政局的突出因素。地区热点问题对亚太政局的影响凸显。一些国家步入选举年，经历了选举政治考验。少数近年来深陷政治社会动荡的国家仍然面临来自政治、经济、安全等领域的诸多严峻挑战。巴以冲突外溢效应冲击亚太国家。大国竞争撬动地缘政治格局重组，南海局势升温。
2023年，美国继续加强在亚太地区的军事存在，着力推进盟伴体系内部军事合作，意在对中国形成“规锁”之势，以维护自身在亚太地区的主导地位和霸权优势。中国为亚太地区局势总体稳定做出重要贡献，积极推动中美关系止跌回稳，继续深化中俄新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系，中韩关系出现回暖迹象，中印关系斗而不破，中国与太平洋岛国关系持续发展，在地区热点问题上主动担当作为。南海问题和平解决趋势没有改变。
2024年共有60多个国家和地区举行选举，这些选举不仅塑造各国的政治生态和格局，还会对区域内外的政治、经济和安全形势产生深远影响。美国对华战略竞争与技术革命、产业革命的影响相互叠加，将进一步加剧亚太地区安全形势的不确定性与不稳定性。地区主要力量分化组合态势显著加剧，决定了次区域安全态势的不同发展方向。由于美国对华战略博弈全面升级，亚太地区小多边合作短期内有进一步强化趋势，开放的地区主义面临前所未有的挑战，区域合作的复杂性与不确定性将随之增加。
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