中国财政政策报告（2025）
| 书 名： |
中国财政政策报告（2025） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON FISCAL POLICY OF CHINA （2025）
|
| 作 者： |
杨志勇 主编 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5228-7018-2 |
| 丛 书 名： |
|
| 关 键 词： |
财政政策 宏观调控 财政科学管理 零基预算 |
| 出版时间： |
2026年03月 |
中文摘要
2024年，在经济发展环境与阶段发生深刻变化的背景下，财政政策的外生影响与内生制约显著增多，其在盘活存量、加力增量、提质增效的同时，融入现代经济治理思维，进行了一系列的政策创新，产生了良好成效。2025年是“十四五”规划收官之年，也是“十五五”规划谋划之年，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，但仍面临经济可持续增长与基本面修复的压力，循环畅通的制约，以及区域协调发展、绿色低碳发展、老龄化加速深化、数字化转型所带来的多重挑战。展望“十五五”时期的财政政策，积极发挥总量调节作用和对重点领域的结构性调节作用；深化财税体制改革，促进财政可持续性增收，为提升财政服务国家治理能力提供更加坚实支撑；深化体制机制改革，破除制约财政政策效应充分释放的因素，更好发挥财政作为国家治理的基础和重要支柱作用。
2024年，中国经济在出口、消费和投资三大需求协同发力下实现“稳中求进”。经济社会大局稳中有进，展现出较强韧性，物价、汇率和就业形势保持相对稳定，但外部环境不确定性上升，宏观运行态势与微观主体感受存在一定差异。2025年，中国GDP增速为5.0%，PPI继续承压，经济保持总体平稳，顺利实现“十四五”规划收官目标。在更加积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策的协同支撑下，内需持续恢复，消费温和回升，投资结构优化，基建和制造业投资保持较快增长，出口结构持续改善，新质生产力成为增长新动能。预测结果显示，“十五五”期间经济将保持中高速增长，发展更注重质量和效益提升，财政收入呈中低速增长态势，财政支出结构持续优化，为中国经济迈向更高发展水平提供坚实支撑。
本书围绕财政政策导向、具体执行情况及趋势演变展开综合研判。在新一轮财税体制改革与中央—地方财政关系重塑背景下，中国地区间税收能力与税收努力水平仍存在显著差异，应优化财政激励约束机制、完善税收治理体系、深化区域协调合作。人是经济社会发展的出发点与落脚点，需围绕人的全生命周期实际需求，适度扩大财政投资于人的支出规模、优化支出结构、深化体制机制改革，逐步推动政策体系与制度框架从投资于物向投资于人转变。乡村振兴战略是实现共同富裕目标的必由之路。财政保障助推乡村振兴，应精准强化资金投入保障、优化支出结构、健全财金合作机制并强化机制保障。同时，还需深化财政科学管理的制度探索，深化零基预算改革，推动多部门、多政策工具协同发力，加强零基预算改革与现行财政预算管理制度的有机衔接，完善成本效益分析体系，建立定额标准动态调整机制，提升财政资源配置效率，有力服务经济社会良性循环，为推动中国式现代化凝聚力量。
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