俄罗斯发展报告（2025）
中文摘要
在俄乌冲突延宕、西方制裁加剧、内外压力增大背景下，2024年俄罗斯继续以维护主权安全、打破国际孤立、巩固大国地位为核心目标，通过强化内部治理、促进经济社会稳定及深化与非西方伙伴的合作等措施，成功化解了诸多内部矛盾，政权稳定和经济韧性得以保障，对外关系得到新的发展，显示出俄罗斯政权超强的应对风险挑战的能力。
在国内政治方面，强权维稳与安全管控并行。2024年是俄罗斯总统大选年，普京以高投票率和高支持率再次当选。“统一俄罗斯”党在地方选举中大获全胜，进一步巩固了总统和联邦中央的权力。随着新政府的组成，俄罗斯的人事安排及职权范围发生重要变化，强化对特殊时期经济与军工生产的控制，成功制止了多起重大恐袭事件，并通过加强反恐立法等措施维持了社会稳定。
在经济发展方面，俄罗斯政府在维持宏观经济稳定基础上，积极应对西方制裁给经济和社会发展带来的挑战，推动经济增长和社会福利的提高。依赖再工业化和进口替代战略、军工订单驱动的制造业扩张及能源出口，俄罗斯经济连续两年逆势增长，2024年GDP增长4.1%。同时，出现明显的经济过热问题，通胀率高达9.52%，失业率降至历史最低的2.3%，劳动力缺口达480万人，财政赤字扩大至占GDP的1.7%，显示出俄罗斯经济仍存在突出的结构性问题和脆弱性风险。
在社会发展方面，2024年俄罗斯社会形势呈现适应与韧性的特征。俄当局改变了征兵动员的策略，形成了以军工综合体为代表的俄乌冲突时期的政治和经济治理模式，参与特别军事行动的俄罗斯社会底层民众可以通过“机会经济”实现阶层跃升。从目前的民意调查来看，俄民众对政权的满意度在提升，俄罗斯社会保持了基本稳定。
在对外关系方面，俄罗斯主动出击，试图摆脱被西方孤立的状态，利用美国大选和欧洲国家的内部分歧，争取尽快实现外交突围，同时强化与传统合作伙伴之间的友好合作关系，提升相互信任度，取得良好效果。2024年，俄罗斯继续利用主场外交，成功举办圣彼得堡经济论坛和东方经济论坛，成功召开金砖国家喀山峰会，彰显俄罗斯仍具备较强的国际影响力。特朗普上台之后国际局势可能发生变化，俄乌和平进程的谈判或许会迎来新的转机。
在中俄关系方面，以元首外交为核心驱动力，高层互动频繁，中俄新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系日益深化。2024年两国贸易额再创新高，能源、经贸、财金、农业等领域合作呈向好态势；在边境与地方合作上，双方正在努力提升合作水平；在互联互通方面，双方的合作继续深化；在战略安全与地区安全问题上，中俄双方保持对话协商，在防务与执法领域的合作机制继续保持良好运转；在国际与地区事务上，中俄保持密切协调以维护各自主权安全和共同利益；在人文领域，以中俄文化年为载体，两国的人员往来水平继续提升。
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总报告
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分报告
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政治
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经济
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对外关系
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中俄关系
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