渐行渐远的红利
| 书 名： |
渐行渐远的红利 |
| 英 文 名： |
A Post-Dividend Era Perspective
|
| 作 者： |
彭文生 著 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5097-4424-6 |
| 丛 书 名： |
|
| 关 键 词： |
中国经济 宏观经济分析 |
| 出版时间： |
2013年04月 |
中文摘要
中国改革开放30年来并行或先后释放出的人口红利、制度变革红利、全球化红利，都将并行或先后面临见顶回落的趋势，因循这些发展机遇时期形成的分析框架来思考未来的增长，难免会陷入惯性与定式，从而出现较大的偏差。本书力图建构适应“后红利时代”的宏观经济分析框架；在此框架下，相应地、分主题地分析中国宏观经济领域若干重要议题；最终，引领读者去探索中国经济新平衡的路径。
遵循制度变革和人口结构这两条主线，本书的基本结论有三点。
第一，经济增长进入趋势性放缓的阶段。主要体现在传统意义的人口红利消退，加上农村富余劳动力减少，制度变革尤其是参加世贸组织以来带来的红利的释放，以及高地价/房价对实体经济的挤压。
第二，结构不平衡有多方面，但根本的失衡是贫富差距。后者降低了消费率，提高了储蓄率和投资率；消费弱/投资强的需求结构导致我国产业结构中的工业占比高、服务业落后；工业过重的产业结构进而带来环境污染与资源压力。财富差距扩大有人口结构的原因，大量的劳动力供给压低了工资；更有政策扭曲的因素，包括行业垄断、不合理的财税机制（税收过度依赖流转税、财产税比重低以及政府支出重投资、轻公共服务和转移支付）、金融压抑（存款利率管制和资本账户管制）、房地产价格过快上涨等。
第三，高储蓄、房地产泡沫和信用扩张联系在一起，形成我国的货币信用周期，是未来5～10年最大的宏观风险。高储蓄率意味着很强的投资需求，货币扩张受CPI通胀的限制较小；而信用扩张和房地产纠结在一起，有着很强的顺周期特征。其他国家的经验显示在货币信用周期的上半场，房地产泡沫吹得越大，信用（包括影子银行）扩张越快，下半场的调整就越痛苦。
经济转型需要平衡公平和效率、政府和市场、上一代与下一代、金融与实体、需求与供给。随着人们禀赋差异的扩大，公平问题凸现，在处理政府与市场的关系时，需要同时纠正“越位”与“缺位”，转变政府职能，进行深度的财税改革，放松计划生育政策。在放松金融管制尤其是利率市场化的同时，更要控制房地产泡沫，加强对影子银行的监管。
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