2019年中国经济形势分析与预测
| 书 名： |
2019年中国经济形势分析与预测 |
| 英 文 名： |
ECONOMY OF CHINA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST （2019）
|
| 作 者： |
李扬 李平 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5097-5280-7 |
| 丛 书 名： |
经济蓝皮书
订阅
|
| 关 键 词： |
中国 经济分析 经济预测 |
| 出版日期： |
2019-01-01 |
中文摘要
2018年初，全球经济继续呈现复苏迹象，大宗商品价格有所回升，全球通胀相对稳定，经济信心转向乐观。但2018年7月，美国对价值340亿美元中国产品加征关税，随后中美贸易摩擦不断升级。面对各种新情况预计2018年中国经济增长6.6%左右，增速比上年减少0.3个百分点。
从三次产业贡献看，第三产业增加值占比继续提高，固定资产投资增速小幅回落，消费增速总体平稳，进出口增速显著大幅回升，贸易顺差基本稳定，CPI与PPI背离的剪刀差有所缩小，居民收入稳定增长。从内需结构上看，2018年最终消费支出对国内生产总值增长的贡献率为78.2%，比上年大幅提高19.4个百分点，达到2001年以来最高水平。
中美贸易争端几起几落，但我们依然可以对数据有所期待，预计2018年我国出口和进口增速分别比上年大幅回升4.5个和4.3个百分点。2019年世界形势更具不确定性，初步预测中国GDP增速小幅下降0.3个百分点，但6.3%的经济增速仍然是世界经济发展最主要的贡献者。
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