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2023年中国经济形势分析与预测

书 名: 2023年中国经济形势分析与预测
英 文 名: ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF CHINA’S ECONOMIC SITUATION (2023)
作 者:  谢伏瞻 蔡昉 高培勇 李雪松
I S B N: 978-7-5228-1188-8
丛 书 名: 经济蓝皮书
关 键 词:  中国经济 政策协调 增长潜力 风险防范
出版日期: 2022-11-01

中文摘要

2022年,在世界格局加速演变、乌克兰危机升级、全球通胀升温、美联储货币政策剧烈调整等复杂多变的外部环境下,面对国内疫情反复和“三重压力”等挑战,中国经济在压力中迎难而进,总体呈现V型走势。2023年是全面贯彻落实党的二十大精神的开局之年,是实施“十四五”规划承前启后的关键一年,也是全面建设社会主义现代化国家开局起步的重要一年,做好经济工作具有重要意义。2023年,宏观政策需继续保持足够的逆周期调节力度,促进经济恢复更加稳固、更加充分,促进实际增长率向潜在增长率回归。建议继续实施积极的财政政策,进一步优化工具选项,有效对冲私人部门需求不足缺口,促进产出缺口收敛;继续实施稳健的货币政策,进一步发挥好总量和结构双重功能,为实体经济降低融资成本和减轻债务负担;提质加力就业优先政策,推动解决结构性就业矛盾;同时,注重加强财政政策、货币政策、宏观审慎政策之间的协调配合。建议2023年抓好以下重点工作任务:一是科学精准做好疫情防控,高效统筹疫情防控与经济社会发展;二是稳定预期提振市场主体信心,着力扩大民间投资和居民消费;三是在化解风险的同时构建长效机制,促进房地产市场健康平稳发展;四是加快完善科技创新体系,提升国家创新体系效能;五是增强产业链供应链韧性,提高现代化水平和国际竞争力;六是加快重点领域改革攻坚步伐,深化对外开放应对外部挑战;七是深入推进区域协调发展和新型城镇化,增强城乡区域发展平衡性协调性;八是积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和,促进经济社会发展绿色转型;九是着力稳定重点群体就业,促进城乡居民收入增长;十是统筹发展与安全,做好重点领域风险防范化解工作。

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