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中国经济增长报告(2009~2010)

书 名: 中国经济增长报告(2009~2010)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH (2009-2010)
作 者:  张平 刘霞辉 袁富华 张自然
I S B N: 978-7-5097-1293-1
丛 书 名: 宏观经济蓝皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  城市化 经济增长 可持续发展
出版日期: 2010-03-01

中文摘要

中国目前正处于一个具有重大历史意义的承前启后、继往开来的时期。人均GDP超过3000美元,突破了“贫困陷阱”,超过了中高收入国家的下限;从国际上看,2008年9月以来爆发的国际金融危机,可能导致各个主要经济大国的分野。本书以上述两大背景为基础分析了下面三个问题:一是2009~2010年中国与世界的经济增长,结论是2009年中国经济已基本摆脱了外部冲击的影响,逐步回到了正常增长轨道;2010年的中国经济将继续向好。世界经济2009年的恢复也好于预期,2010年将逐步走出危机。二是中国各省区市1990~2007年的可持续发展评价,基本结论是,在经济高速增长的同时,经济增长的质量不断提高,各地的可持续发展机制也得以强化。我们选取四组三级共60个左右的指标进行分析,经过测算,1990~2007年,全国可持续发展水平整体上升了193%,当然各地区之间差距还很大。三是中国的城市化与经济增长的关系研究,有实证研究表明,城市化水平与单位资本GDP间的相关系数高达0.85。原因是人口和资源的空间集聚产生了规模收益递增的效应。对于工业化的城市,聚集效应更明显,因为知识和新技术在交流、竞争和传播等方面效率更高,城市运行成本低(因公用设施密集),产出效率高。可以观察到,以东亚为主的新兴经济体走的正是以大城市圈为特征的、围绕工业化而展开城市化的路子。未来一段时期,中国的城市化将不断承担起推动经济增长的重任,我们测算的结果表明,中国目前正处在加速的城市化进程中,它将与不断现代化的工业一起成为支撑中国经济的支柱。

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