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中国经济增长报告(2020~2021)

书 名: 中国经济增长报告(2020~2021)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH (2020-2021)
作 者:  张自然 张平 刘霞辉 袁富华
I S B N: 978-7-5201-9076-3
丛 书 名: 宏观经济蓝皮书
关 键 词:  中国经济 经济增长 双碳
出版日期: 2021-10-01

中文摘要

自2020年下半年以来全球经济总体保持了持续复苏势头,但由于在新冠肺炎疫情防控、政策空间等方面存在巨大差异,各经济体复苏呈现分化态势。发达经济体中,美国复苏状况好于日本和欧盟;而一些疫情出现反复的新兴经济体复苏进程有可能放缓。中国经济持续稳定恢复,保持向好发展态势。在各项政策逐步回归正常化的情况下,经济增长的内生动力将成为决定经济恢复进程的关键性因素,内生动力的提升需要重视增长质量与增长效率双提升、重视产业优化与产业数字化转型、重视内需主导与需求侧管理。尤其值得关注的是,在全球经济新格局下,实现“双碳”目标是内生动力成功提升的核心,其关键在于碳排放量增长率,而碳排放量增长情况主要受经济增速和碳排放强度的影响。要在2030年前实现碳排放达峰,需要在经济增速目标既定的情况下,逐年提高碳排放强度下降速度,使之在2030年前上升到至少与GDP增速相当的水平。减少碳排放的途径有降低绿色溢价和向绿色低碳转型。降低绿色溢价,可以从生产端入手征收碳税和实行碳排放配额,也可以从消费端入手降低人们选择绿色生产生活方式的成本,这涉及加强绿色基础设施建设;向绿色低碳转型需要兼顾地区、行业、人员方面的利益格局变动。

区域经济发展前景报告从指数、分级和排名等方面对中国30个省(区、市)1990~2021年的经济增长、增长潜力、政府效率、人民生活和环境质量五个一级指标进行分析,并在积极推动实现“双碳”目标和绿色增长的背景下对中国30个省(区、市)的发展前景进行评估,得出了“八五”至“十四五”时期中国30个省(区、市)的发展前景指数、分级及排名变化。报告研究结论为:如果将中国30个省(区、市)的发展前景分成五级,上海市、北京市、江苏省、浙江省在2009~2017年、2010年以来、2000年以来和1990年以来均处于Ⅰ级水平,2018~2021年广东省上升至Ⅰ级水平,而北京市则下滑至Ⅱ级水平。从区域发展的角度来看,发展前景方面西部地区改善情况优于东部地区和中部地区;一级指标方面,除人民生活西部地区改善情况优于中部地区和东部地区外,经济增长、增长潜力、政府效率和环境质量均是东部地区改善情况优于中、西部地区。权重排名前几位的具体指标的变化反映了在我国迈向高质量发展过程中,城镇基本养老保险覆盖率、城镇失业保险覆盖率、城市化率、地方财政科学事业费支出占比等与城市化相关的指标的重要程度,客观地反映了高质量型经济的关注点已经从城市化的发展本身转向与城市化和高质量发展相关联的各种公共服务、社会保障、人民生活等。

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