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中国民生消费需求景气评价报告(2020)

书 名: 中国民生消费需求景气评价报告(2020)
英 文 名: ANNUAL EVALUATION REPORT ON THE PEOPLE’S LIVING CONSUMPTION DEMAND OF CHINA (2020)
作 者:  王亚南刘杰 赵娟魏海燕
I S B N: 978-7-5201-7049-9
丛 书 名: 民生指数报告 订阅
关 键 词:  居民生活 消费 顾客需求 研究报告 中国 2020
出版日期: 2020-10-01

中文摘要

揭示中国“全面建成小康社会”进程发生的深刻变化,首先应当以民生进步加以衡量。考察民生需求主要在于居民日常生活消费需求,其间蕴含“人民美好生活需要”的诸方面发展。

2000~2018年,全国城乡综合演算的各类民生消费数据人均值持续明显增长,2018年居民总消费为2000年的7.15倍,物质消费为6.53倍,非物消费为8.64倍。物质消费比重显著降低6.12个百分点,非物消费比重显著增高6.12个百分点,消费结构出现很大升级变化。居民总消费、物质消费、非物消费地区差逐渐缩小;居民总消费、物质消费、非物消费城乡比逐渐缩小。“不平衡的发展”在民生领域多有改善。

但居民消费率从35.91%明显降低至31.53%,“十二五”时期以来明显回升。尤其应注意,居民消费支出年均增长明显低于财政支出年增3.59个百分点。居民积蓄率从22.57%持续极显著升高至30.10%,反过来对消费需求的抑制作用加重。

从2000年以来基数值纵向测评可以看出,西部民生消费需求景气指数提升最高,中部次之,东部再次,东北最低,表明区域均衡发展国家方略已见成效;西藏、贵州、安徽、甘肃、河南占据前5位。2018年无差距理想值横向测评发现,东北民生消费需求景气指数最高,东部次之,中部再次,西部最低,表明差距在于各方面协调性、均衡性还不够理想;上海、湖北、浙江、天津、北京占据前5位。另有基数值纵向测评显示,2005年以来贵州、河南、四川、云南、安徽占据前5位;2010年以来贵州、甘肃、湖北、西藏、四川占据前5位;2015年以来西藏、湖北、贵州、广西、安徽占据前5位;2017年以来湖北、西藏、云南、广西、海南占据前5位。

依据历年动态推演预测,至2020年全国居民总消费城乡比将较明显缩减,地区差也将较明显缩减;至2035年全国居民总消费城乡比将继续明显缩减,地区差亦将继续较明显缩减。假定全国保持居民收入比、居民消费率不再降低,实现各类民生数据历年最小城乡比直至弥合城乡比,民生消费需求景气指数将更加明显提升。

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