中国民生消费需求景气评价报告（2021）

揭示中国“全面建成小康社会”进程发生的深刻变化，首先应当以民生进步加以衡量。考察民生需求主要在于居民日常生活消费需求，其间蕴含“人民美好生活需要”的诸方面发展。

2000～2019年，全国城乡综合演算的各类民生消费数据人均值持续明显增长，2019年居民总消费为2000年的7.78倍，物质消费为7.04倍，非物消费为9.56倍。物质消费比重显著降低6.72个百分点，非物消费比重显著增高6.72个百分点，消费结构出现很大升级变化。居民总消费、物质消费、非物消费地区差全部逐渐缩小；居民总消费、物质消费、非物消费城乡比全部逐渐缩小。“不平衡的发展”在民生领域多有改善。

但居民消费率从35.91%明显降低至31.29%，“十二五”以来略有回升。尤其应注意，居民消费支出年均增长明显低于财政支出年增3.33个百分点。居民积蓄率从22.57%持续极显著升高至30.35%，反过来对消费需求的抑制作用加重。

从2000年以来基数值纵向测评可以看出，中部民生消费需求景气指数提升最高，西部次之，东部再次，东北最低，表明区域均衡发展国家方略已见成效；西藏、安徽、贵州、甘肃、河南占据前5位。2019年无差距理想值横向测评发现，东部民生消费需求景气指数最高，东北次之，中部再次，西部最低，表明差距在于各方面协调性、均衡性还不够理想；上海、北京、浙江、广东、天津占据前5位。另有基数值纵向测评显示，2005年以来贵州、河南、安徽、四川、云南占据前5位；2010年以来贵州、西藏、甘肃、湖北、四川占据前5位；2015年以来西藏、广西、安徽、贵州、湖北占据前5位；2018年以来西藏、安徽、海南、江西、上海占据前5位。

依据历年动态推演预测，至2020年全国居民总消费城乡比将略微缩减，地区差也将略微缩减；至2035年全国居民总消费城乡比将继续明显缩减，地区差亦将继续较明显缩减。假定全国保持居民收入比、居民消费率不再降低，实现各类民生数据历年最小城乡比直至弥合城乡比，民生消费需求景气指数将更加明显提升。

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总报告

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省域报告

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书名：	中国民生消费需求景气评价报告（2021）
英文名：	ANNUAL EVALUATION REPORT ON THE PEOPLE’S LIVING CONSUMPTION DEMAND OF CHINA （2021）
作者：	王亚南刘杰赵娟魏海燕
I S B N：	978-7-5201-9028-2
丛书名：	民生指数报告订阅
关键词：	民生消费消费结构需求检测景气排行
出版日期：	2021-08-01