中国与周边国家关系发展报告（2021）

2020年新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行加速百年未有之大变局的演变，世界进入动荡变革期，周边形势也随之发生改变。周边地区大国竞争加剧，地缘政治复杂性凸显，安全风险上升，地区热点问题犹存，但周边形势没有发生重大逆转，和平、发展、合作、共赢依然是主流。中国与周边国家正努力开创共赢共享新局面。中国与周边国家伙伴关系构建进入新阶段，安全合作持续深化，经济合作有所突破，交流互鉴持续升温，生态环境合作稳步推进。在区域层面，中国与东北亚国家抗疫合作取得明显成效，但地区经济一体化进程依然缓慢。中国与中亚国家抗疫合作进一步夯实了双方战略伙伴关系的民意基础，但双边经济合作明显受到了疫情的影响。中国与西亚国家关系稳中有进，经贸合作呈现新亮点，但双方关系仍面临传统安全与非传统安全威胁。中国-东盟面向和平与繁荣的战略伙伴关系迈入新时代，双方互为第一大贸易伙伴。中国与南亚国家经贸合作受疫情影响略有下降，南亚部分地区安全形势一度趋于紧张。中国与南太平洋岛国创新沟通方式、交流抗疫信息，赋予“一带一路”建设“健康之路”新使命。在双边层面，中俄在政治、经贸、能源、安全、人文等领域合作成果显著，双方新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系稳步发展。中印发生边境摩擦，但中国却超越美国成为印度第一大贸易伙伴国。中日政治互动密切，双方关系持续改善。中韩战略合作伙伴关系迎来新的发展机遇。在与周边国家共建“一带一路”过程中，存在一些法律风险，需要引起我们的警惕和防范。此外，美国深度介入中国周边，干涉中国边疆事务，威胁中国周边及边疆安全。

2021年世界经济预计实现恢复性增长，国际格局加速调整，周边安全形势将面临更多不确定性，大国在周边博弈加剧，地缘政治风险依然较高，合作抗疫成为共识，区域经贸合作加速推进，周边命运共同体构建提质增速。在区域层面，中国与东北亚国家合作持续深化，中国将加速推进中日韩自由贸易协定谈判。中国与中亚国家高质量共建“一带一路”将会取得新进展，双方政治、安全、人文交流稳步向前发展。中国与西亚国家政治关系仍将稳固，经贸合作有望加强，安全合作空间较大。中国-东盟面向和平与繁荣的战略伙伴关系将持续深化，东亚经济一体化进程有望加速推进。中国与南亚国家合作受地区大国和域外大国影响较大，面临多重考验。中国与太平洋岛国将加强抗疫合作，太平洋岛国经济社会发展将逐步走出困境。在双边层面，中俄将继续深化各领域战略协作，双方新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系走深走实。中印边境局势有望趋于缓和，双方关系有回暖迹象，经贸合作可能有新进展。中日关系总体企稳的方向并未改变，但依然存在不稳定性。中韩战略合作伙伴关系有望加速发展，双方经贸合作或将取得更大突破。中国与周边国家高质量共建“一带一路”持续推进，互联互通进一步加强。拜登政府的亚太战略及对华政策调整空间有限，美国将继续深度介入中国周边，南海和平稳定局势面临新的考验。

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书名：	中国与周边国家关系发展报告（2021）
英文名：	DEVELOPMENT REPORT ON THE RELATIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES （2021）
作者：	谢伏瞻
I S B N：	978-7-5201-7932-4
丛书名：	中国周边关系蓝皮书订阅
关键词：	中外关系中国国际格局周边国家
出版日期：	2021-03-01

中国与周边国家关系发展报告（2021）

中文摘要

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总报告

区域篇

双边篇

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