欧洲发展报告（2022～2023）
中文摘要
2022年2月24日爆发的俄乌冲突产生了巨大冲击，对欧洲安全、经济、政治、外交等各个方面都产生了深刻影响。欧洲很多人把这场二战后欧洲最大的军事冲突视为“历史分水岭”，德国总理朔尔茨称其为“时代转折点”。本书的总报告聚焦乌克兰危机升级背景下的欧洲之变及其影响。
总报告指出，俄乌冲突导致欧俄全面对抗，欧洲安全秩序遭遇剧烈冲击。同时，俄乌冲突导致欧俄能源脱钩，进而引发欧洲国家通胀率高企，各国经济下行压力增大。乌克兰危机还加剧了欧洲政治极化和民粹化趋势。在对外关系方面，乌克兰危机升级增大了欧洲对美国在安全和能源等关键领域的依附性，但双方的经济矛盾仍然突出，法国等国家坚持寻求实现战略自主。俄乌冲突对中欧关系产生了较大影响，加大了欧盟对华消极认知，政治互信受到削弱，但2022年中欧贸易合作仍取得较大进展。
本书的第二部分包括六篇分报告，涵盖欧洲政治、经济、社会、法律、对外关系，以及中欧关系。2022年，欧洲多数国家保持了政局稳定，但也有些国家出现明显的政治震荡。俄乌冲突的爆发和持续延宕在某种程度上提高了中东欧地区在欧盟中的地位，欧洲的权力重心将出现一定程度的东移，同时随着乌克兰危机的长期化，围绕如何应对这一危机欧盟成员国之间的分歧有可能增大。2022年俄乌冲突虽打乱了欧洲经济复苏步伐，但“下一代欧盟”计划大体上得以如期落实，绿色、数字“双转型”也取得新进展。2022年，应对高通胀及其对经济社会造成的负面冲击也成为欧盟及欧洲主要国家的紧迫任务。在此背景下，欧元区和欧洲主要国家的货币政策由宽松转向收紧，而财政政策整体上仍相对宽松。在社会治理方面，欧洲各国面临的挑战同样不容忽视。本书还从推进数字和绿色转型、供应链重塑与对等开放三个维度，展现了欧盟年度法制进程。关于中欧关系，近年来欧洲对华认知呈现多维度、竞争性、复杂化的特征，其中焦点是，是否以及如何摆脱对华过度依赖问题。
本书的第三部分，就六个2022年度的重要问题进行专题研究，包括法国总统和国民议会选举、德国的“时代转折”及其多重影响、震荡与困局中的英国政治、新版“战略概念”与北约新一轮战略转型动向、新形势下的欧盟绿色转型新进展及面临的挑战，以及波兰对德索赔的缘起与影响。
欧洲身处大国竞争和地缘政治博弈的“关键场域”，面临内政外交转型的“时代转折”。目前，欧洲加速推进绿色和数字转型，加强安全防务建设，但同时面临内部掣肘和外部施压的双重困境。面对欧洲变局和全球大变局，虽然中欧关系面临的挑战增大，但中欧双方务实合作的基础仍将推动中欧关系向前发展。
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