中国人口与劳动问题报告No.24
书 名： 中国人口与劳动问题报告No.24
英 文 名： REPORT ON CHINA’S POPULATION AND LABOR NO.24
作 者： 蔡昉 都阳
I S B N： 978-7-5228-2932-6
丛 书 名：
人口与劳动绿皮书
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关 键 词： 人口达峰 老龄化国家 高质量发展
出版日期： 2023-11-01
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中文摘要
2022年，中国总人口较上年减少了85万人。总人口达峰是中国人口形势的又一次重要转折。在人口转变阶段发生关键变化的时刻，需要从保持经济社会发展长期可持续性的视角，认识人口与发展之间的关系，以体制改革、政策调整和制度建设促进人口高质量发展，支撑中国式现代化。
中国总人口在达峰后将小幅波动，“十四五”时期稳定在峰值平台期，人口平均每年减少50万左右，“十五五”时期年均减少约200万人。2020～2022年的疫情直接或间接导致了初婚和生育的推迟，出生人口加速减少。女性与男性的受教育差距在缩小，但劳动力市场上和家庭内部的性别不平等状况没有显著改善。从宏观层面和家庭层面同时实现性别平等，有利于促进生育率回升。
从世界生育支持政策的实践看，灵活的工作安排和休假制度是提振生育水平的成本—效益型措施，低价、优质、覆盖全面的托育服务是支持和推动育龄人群实现意愿生育水平不可或缺的力量，生育奖励等直接的转移支付类措施对提振生育率的作用十分有限。文化仍然是影响生育行为的重要因素之一，生育率下降是生育文化现代化的必然趋势。中国须提供给人们充分选择婚育形式的空间，营造开放、包容的社会生育文化。生育支持政策体系的顶层设计要明确中央与地方之间的权责关系，抓住女性生育与劳动力市场发展冲突这一主要矛盾，优先选择既有利于生育又能够提高女性就业竞争力的政策工具，个人所得税抵扣是一举多得的政策。
人口达峰将影响技术进步方向、消费和投资需求，从而影响经济增长。中国人力资源规模将经历下降—上升—下降的过程，大约在2040年“二次达峰”。人力资源数量对教育回报率十分敏感，也受到退休年龄的显著影响。人口达峰后的技术进步方向将转向以创新提高技术效率和资源利用率，促进消费率的提升。应推动企业突破现有的生产技术前沿，实现科技创新。进入“十五五”之后，人口数量减少将直接带来消费需求的下降，并且随人口负增长规模的增加而不断扩大。人口负增长引发的服务消费需求减少规模最大，工业制成品和大宗商品次之。消费需求的减少还会导致投资需求下滑。
进入人口负增长阶段，养老医疗等社会保障支付压力激增，生育养育等家庭支持政策的需求急切。实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略、加强顶层设计、完善社会支持体系、积极探索新的政策工具，对于应对人口达峰带来的问题至关重要。
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