日本经济与中日经贸关系研究报告（2013）
书 名： 日本经济与中日经贸关系研究报告（2013）
英 文 名： ANNUAL REPORT ON JAPANESE ECONOMY AND SINO-JAPANESE ECONOMIC & TRADE RELATIONS(2013)
作 者： 刘瑞 叶琳 王洛林 张季风
I S B N： 978-7-5097-4541-0
丛 书 名：
日本经济蓝皮书
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关 键 词： 经济发展 对外经济关系 中日关系 研究报告 2013
出版日期： 2013-05-01
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中文摘要
2012年是日本经济内忧外患、举步维艰的一年。全面启动的灾后重建带来的经济刺激效果微乎其微。受欧债危机的拖累，世界经济下滑，日本经济连续两个季度负增长，陷入技术型衰退。再加上日本挑起的购岛闹剧，导致对华出口骤降，致使经济复苏未取得预期效果。2013年，在安倍新经济政策，即无限度量化宽松政策和大规模公共投资的刺激下，日本经济可能出现较高增长。钓鱼岛争端对中日经济关系造成严重影响，双边贸易出现负增长，相互投资受阻、中日互购国债与人民币直接交易也不同程度受挫，中日韩自贸区谈判年内未能如期举行，同时也对世界经济造成负面影响。2013年，如果中日关系不进一步恶化，随着世界经济、日本经济的缓慢复苏和中国经济的持续高速增长，中日经贸合作可望回归正常轨道。 本书以“总报告”为基础，以分析现状与发展趋势为起点，以中日邦交正常化40年来的双边经贸关系和日本参与TPP、中日韩FTA谈判为中心，同时兼顾日本制造业所面临的挑战、养老金财政风险、创新体系的效果分析、核电战略走向等内容，以中国借鉴日本经验为目的，对日本经济以及中日经济合作的最新动态进行了全方位的分析。 参与TPP还是中日韩FTA，日本正在经历着艰难的选择。从传统收益上看，日本依然希望通过中日韩FTA的签署，从中国和韩国的经济高速发展中获取经济利益；但从非传统收益上看，对主导权、国家安全、利益集团等方面的考量，使日本不得不重视TPP的签署。当然，日本哪方面的利益都不想放过，因此选择了同时参与谈判。但可以预计，两者的谈判历程都将十分艰难。日本的制造业正处于转型期，现在下结论说日本的制造业已经衰退，还为时尚早。总体来看，日本仍处于全球产业链条的上游，制造业的优势也为日本积极参与各种形式的区域经济合作创造了良好的条件。
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比较与借鉴
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