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中国住房发展报告(2009~2010)

书 名: 中国住房发展报告(2009~2010)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF HOUSING MARKET IN CHINA (2009~2010)
作 者:  裴长洪 荆林波倪鹏飞 高培勇
I S B N: 978-7-5097-1172-9
丛 书 名: 住房绿皮书
关 键 词:  住宅经济 经济发展 研究报告 中国 2009~2010
出版日期: 2009-12-01

中文摘要

本报告从宏观背景、市场主体、市场体系、市场潜力、公共政策等5个方面,对中国住房市场作了全面系统的分析、预测与评价,并给出相关了政策建议。报告具体内容包括:在评述2008~2009年住房及相关市场走势的基础上,预测了2009~2010年住房及相关市场的发展变化;从历史角度分析了改革开放以来住房市场及其相关领域的发展历程,探讨了其中的规律与存在的不足;通过构建中国住房指数体系,量化评估了住房市场各关键领域的发展状况;剖析了住房市场及其相关领域协调健康发展所面临的主要问题与挑战,有针对性地提出了相关政策建议。

2008~2009年分析显示:宏观经济从急速下滑到触底回升;城市化质量提升明显,中西部地区城市化加快;全球经济从深度衰退到逐步回稳;开发企业由急剧恶化到迅速好转;消费、投资和投机意愿几经反复;信贷监管由紧变松,又由松变紧;住房资产与物业市场从回落调整到快速上涨;住房土地市场从热度下降到逐步回暖;住房金融市场从收紧和沉闷到宽松和爆发;住房监管力度有所放松;保障性住房建设力度迅速加大,保障覆盖范围有所提高。

2009~2010年预测认为:宏观经济将持续复苏,住房投资作用增强;城市化规模呈现高峰,城市化区域增长相对均衡;全球经济缓慢复苏,各国住房市场表现有别;住房资产与物业市场先扬后抑、价稳量增;住宅用地市场交易量增加,交易价格上升;住房金融市场总体温和上行,区间季节波动。

通过住房市场及其相关领域的历史分析发现:国民经济疑似住房依赖病症;城市化进程长期滞后根源于战略偏差和与制度缺陷;家庭住房观念产生根本性变化;住房金融机构多元路径探索归于“一元路径居优”;当前住房市场处在本轮长周期的下行期;中国目前还不存在完整意义上的住房金融体系;中国住房社会保障体系长期缺位。

住房上市公司指数、住房支付能力指数(1999~2008)、住房真实供求缺口指数(1978~2009)、城市土地市场价值指数、住房市场价值潜力指数、住房贷款风险指数、住房市场监管指数、住房社会保障指数等8大指数显示:上市公司两极分化现象比较严重;全国城镇居民的住房支付能力较弱;住房真实供求由短缺进入过剩;土地价值潜力上海最大,北京第二;沿海和沿江城市住房价值潜力较大;住房贷款的风险隐患较大;全国中心城市的住房市场监管水平领先于其他城市;各城市住房保障水平存在较大差异。

中国住房市健康均衡发展所面临的主要问题与挑战是:宏观经济内生性增长动力不足,通货膨胀压力加大;城市化战略规划存在偏差,管理制度瓶颈凸显;开发企业整体素质差,行为不规范;住房消费心态不成熟,中低收入者支付能力低下;信贷宽松支持了投机,紧缩抑制了消费;政策宽松涨价,政策紧缩量跌;地方政府直接参与炒地,土地使用效率低下、供求关系紧张;风险过度集中于住房信贷市场,信贷流向缺乏有效监管;行政审批效率低,政府监管明显缺失;住房社会保障体系建设未得到地方政府的积极响应,监管措施缺位。

报告建议:(1)完善宏观调控政策措施,加大政府保障性住房投资;(2)提升城镇化的质量,创造住房真实需求;(3)引导企业转型升级,监督企业规范经营;(4)严格金融监管,完善住房金融体系;(5)支持住房消费,抑制住房投机;(6)完善土地市场监管体系,支持保障性住房建设;(7)完善和改进市场监管制度;(8)逐步完善住房社会保障制度,扩大保障房供给。

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