越南国情报告（2009）

2008年全球金融危机引起世界政治、经济发生复杂、剧烈变化，越南的经济社会受到激烈的冲击并经受了严峻的考验。政治上，越南党的领导地位继续巩固，党在加强党建工作、全面提高党的领导能力的同时，采取多种措施，促使经济运行渐趋平稳，民生得到保障，社会政治局势基本保持稳定。外交上，越南继续推行全方位、多样化、主动出击的外交战略和政策，发展着重于大国、邻国的双边外交和着重于东盟、联合国的多边外交，以及着重争取外资、援助、游客和拓展外部市场的经济外交，取得了明显成效。经济上，越南经济形势剧烈变动，上半年由于高通货膨胀，政府采取从紧的财政、货币的宏观政策，采取了一揽子的治理政策和措施：调整经济增长指标，实行财政紧缩政策；提高银行存款利率；稳定外汇市场；控制重要物资、商品的进出口和价格等措施，年中控制住了通货膨胀。下半年，受金融危机的影响，出口受阻，商品价格下降，失业增加，政府集中各种力量并采取措施来抑制经济的衰退，应对的措施包括：信贷支持，扩大出口；增加投资，刺激消费；下调利率，减免征税；解决就业，维护稳定；简化行政手续，为企业生产、经营创造便利条件等，保持了经济增长。可以说，2008年，越南经济有喜有忧，农业仍获得丰收，农业总产值预计增长5.1%，高于2007年的4%；工业产值同比只增加了14.6%，低于2007年的17.1%；越南商业服务业增长了7.2%，低于2007年的8.7%；商品进出口总额达到1428亿美元，增长28.2%，其中出口金额增长29.5%，进口金额增长27.5%，出口增长率高于进口；其他行业大都保持增长势头。虽然通货膨胀率高达23%，但GDP增长仍然达到了6.23%，虽然低于2007年的8.5%，也没有达到经过调整后的7%的增长计划，但在世界经济增长普遍大幅度下滑的情况下，越南仍成为东南亚发展最快的国家之一，实在不能让人忽视。尤其是人均GDP实现了1000美元的历史性突破，达到1024美元，提前实现了越南党和政府提出的2010年人均GDP比2000年翻一番，达到950美元～1000美元的目标，这一成绩，在金融危机大背景下实属不易。

越南实行以出口为导向的经济增长模式，经济外向度很大，2009年金融危机对越南经济发展影响依然很大。可以预见，与各国一样，越南依然面临金融危机的严峻挑战，不过，越南经济社会的基本面仍然没有改变，预期2009年底2010年初有可能走出金融危机的阴影。

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上篇总报告

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中篇 2008～2009年越南发展分报告

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书名：	越南国情报告（2009）
英文名：	ANNUAL REPORT ON VIETNAM’S NATIONAL SITUATION （2009）
作者：	刘建文农立夫古小松
I S B N：	978-7-5097-0870-5
丛书名：	越南蓝皮书订阅
关键词：	越南研究报告 2009
出版日期：	2009-07-01