拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告（2009～2010）
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中文摘要
本书全面盘点2009年拉丁美洲和加勒比地区形势。
2009年6月28日洪都拉斯发生的军事政变所产生的消极影响并未改变拉美政治发展进程平稳运转的主流趋势。10多个拉美国家的各类选举顺利举行，政党轮替和权力交接基本有序。在一些左翼政府的执政地位得到进一步稳固的同时，右翼力量在一些国家有所抬头和增长，“左”“右”交替和政策多变的风险依然存在。拉美国家民主政治体制及维护民主体制的集体机制的脆弱性依然明显。
受国际金融危机及发达国家和世界经济低迷的影响，2009年拉丁美洲和加勒比经济呈V字形走势，全年经济先跌后升，出现近20年来最严重的衰退。全球金融危机通过对外贸易、侨汇收入和旅游收入等变化对拉美国家的相关产业产生影响，进而对整个地区经济产生直接或间接影响。
受国际金融危机的影响，拉美国家社会形势好转的势头在2009年出现逆转：贫困率再度回升，收入分配状况有所恶化，失业率普遍增高，侨汇收入明显减少。与此同时，拉美因患甲型H1N1流感而死亡的人数占全球的40%左右；一些拉美国家爆发了罢工示威活动，社会不稳定风险增加；毒品犯罪呈常态化趋势，给相关国家的社会安全提出严峻挑战；全球气候变化对拉美造成的不利影响逐渐加剧；等等。
2009年，国际金融危机、世界多极化的发展及奥巴马的上台，为拉美国家外交政策调整提供了新的契机。奥马巴上台之初采取了改善美拉关系的一些措施，但美国与哥伦比亚签订的军事合作协定及美国在洪都拉斯政变问题上的政策使美拉关系面临新的考验。拉美国家继续加强一体化合作，但内部政治纷争、历史遗留的边界纠纷、国际金融危机后不断扩大的贸易争端及美国因素等，导致拉美国家间的矛盾和冲突不断扩大。拉美国家多元化对外关系取得积极进展，与欧盟的传统关系继续巩固，与包括中国在内的亚太国家、俄罗斯和伊朗的关系有新的进展。
展望2010年，巴西、哥伦比亚、委内瑞拉等国举行的各类选举不仅会决定这些国家的政治走向，也会对整个拉美地区的政治走势产生重大影响。2010年拉美和加勒比经济增速将逐步加快，但仍将面临全球经济不确定因素的挑战，后危机时期经济政策调整的深化、市场和产业结构的调整，都将决定拉美和加勒比国家能否实现未来的经济增长目标。拉美经济虽已出现复苏迹象，但大多数国家的复苏速度可能比较缓慢，增加就业的前景也并不十分乐观。
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