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蔡 昉
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    1990~2018年中国各省区市发展前景评价——迈向高质量发展阶段

    摘要

    本报告通过对1990~2018年中国各省区市发展前景进行分析,得出了中国30个省区市1990~2018年的发展前景以及经济增长、增长潜力、政府效率、人民生活和环境质量5个一级指标的指数、分级与排名情况。分析结果表明,上海、浙江、江苏多年来处于发展前景的第一级,广东2018年开始进入第一级,而北京自2018年开始由多年处于发展前景的第一级下降为第二级。除了发展前景方面西部地区改善优于东部地区和中部地区、人民生活方面西部地区改善优于中部地区和东部地区外,经济增长、增长潜力、政府效率和环境质量四个方面均是东部地区改善优于中部地区和西部地区。同时,本报告也测度了“八五”至“十三五”的发展前景指数及其排名变化情况。研究发现,随着经济由粗放型外延式的发展转向高质量发展,人们对公共服务、生活质量和生态环境的要求越来越高。权重位于前列的具体指标的变化反映了我国经济在从粗放型发展转向高质量发展过程中,涉及的城镇基本养老保险覆盖率、城镇失业保险覆盖率、城市化率、第三产业增加值占GDP比重、大气污染物排放等与人民生活和环境保护密切相关的指标的重要程度,客观指标反映了高质量型经济的关注点,即从关注城市化发展本身转向关注与城市化和高质量发展相关联的各种公共服务、人民生活和生态环境,包括城镇基本养老保险、城镇失业保险、城乡消费水平、第三产业发展和生态环境变化。

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    Abstract

    This part analyzes the development prospects of China’s provinces during 1990-2018,calculates development prospect indices for 30 provinces and the ranking during 1990-2018,and concludes the development indices and ranks of five primary indicators,including economic growth,the growth potential,government efficiency,people’s lives and environment quality. It could be found that Shanghai,Zhejiang,Jiangsu are classified in the first level for a long time. In 2018,it is also found that Guangdong has been in the first level while Beijing reduced to the second level from the first level although it is in this level for long ages. Compared to the Central and Eastern region,it is better in the Western which improves the development prospects and people’s lives while economic growth and growth potential,efficiency of the government and environment quality in five aspects are Eastern area improvement is better than that of the Central and Western area. Also,this report concludes that development prospects indices and the ranking changes from “8th Five-Year Plan” to “13th Five-Year Plan” period. Report argues that with the economic development shiting from the extensive denotative to high-quality development,the demand for public services,quality of life and ecological environmentgradually gradually increase. From extensive economic development to the high-quality economic development,the weight of specific indicators which are in the top place have been changed and it reflects the importance of these indicators that is closely related to people’s life and environment protection such as the urban basic endowment insurance coverage,urban unemployment insurance coverage,urbanization rate,the value added of the third industry accounts for GDP share and emissions of air pollutants. The objective indicators have objectively reflected the emphasized concerns in high-quality economic development:The attentions focus on public service,people’s living and ecological environment,including urban basic endowment insurance,unemployment insurance,urban and rural consumption level,the development of the tertiary industry and the ecological environment that are associated with urbanization and high-quality development while it used to focus on the development of urbanization only.

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    作者简介
    张自然:张自然,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员、博士,研究方向为技术进步与经济增长。
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