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    “全面小康”进程人民生活发展总体评价——2000~2017年民生指数检测

    摘要

    国家“十三五”规划注重促进城乡区域协调发展,促进经济社会协调发展;坚持居民收入增长和经济增长同步,加大居民消费对经济增长的贡献。这些战略目标应当实化强化为“约束性指标”,以更显著的民生进步迎接“全面小康”建设进程目标年到来。2000~2017年,全国城乡综合演算的各类民生数据人均值持续稳步增长,2017年居民收入为2000年的7.26倍,总消费为6.58倍,积蓄为9.58倍。物质消费比重明显降低5.95个百分点,非物消费比重明显增高5.95个百分点,消费结构出现较大升级变化。居民收入、总消费、积蓄地区差逐渐缩小;居民收入、总消费城乡比逐渐缩小,而居民积蓄城乡比持续扩大。“不平衡的发展”在民生领域多有改善。但居民收入比从46.37%较明显下降至44.82%,居民消费率从35.91%明显下降至31.46%,“十二五”以来略有回升。尤其应注意居民收入年均增长明显低于财政收入年增3.23个百分点,居民消费支出年均增长明显低于财政支出年增3.83个百分点。居民积蓄率从22.57%持续明显升高至29.80%,反过来对消费需求的抑制作用加重。依据历年动态推演预测,至2020年全国居民收入城乡比将略微缩减,地区差也将略微缩减;居民总消费城乡比将较明显缩减,地区差也将略微缩减。至2035年居民收入城乡比将继续较明显缩减,地区差亦将继续略微缩减;居民总消费城乡比将继续极显著缩减,地区差亦将继续略微缩减。 <<
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    Abstract

    Nation Plan of Thirteenth Five-Year Period focus on promoting the regional harmonious development between urban and rural areas,promoting the coordinated development of economy and society,adhering to the residents’ income growth and economic development synchronization and that the consumption contributes a significantly larger share to economic growth. These strategies should be transformed and reinforced to “binding indicators”,so as to accelerate the upgrade of the national people’s livelihood development index,with a more significant progress to meet the target year of “roundly building a moderately prosperous society”. From 2000 to 2017,the per capita value of all types of people’s livelihood data in national urban and rural comprehensive calculation steadily continued to increase. The residents’ income in 2017 was 7.26 times of that in 2000,the total consumption was 6.58 times and the amassment was 9.58 times. The proportion of the residents’ material consumption evidently fell over 5.95 percentage points and the proportion of the residents’ immaterial consumption evidently rose over 5.95 percentage points,showing a certain upgrading change of the consumption structure. The regional disparity of the residents’ income,total consumption and amassment roundly continued to be reduced;and the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ income and total consumption continued to be reduced,but that of the residents’ amassment continued to be extended. The unbalanced development has improved in the field of the people’s livelihood. But the residents’ income rate certainly fell from 46.37% to 44.82% and the residents’ consumption rate evidently fell from 35.91% to 31.46%,it rose slightly since the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. In particular,the average annual growth of the residents’ income was evidently 3.23 percentage points lower than the annual growth of fiscal revenues and the average annual growth of the residents’ consumption expenditure was evidently 3.83 percentage points lower than the annual growth of fiscal expenditure. The residents’ amassment rate evidently continued to rise from 22.57% to 29.80%,which in return aggravate the inhibition of consumption demand. Based on the dynamic prediction test of calendar year,the countrywide urban and rural ratio of the residents’ income will slightly be reduced,and its regional disparity will slightly be reduced to 2020;the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ total consumption will certainly be reduced,and its regional disparity will slightly be reduced to 2020. The countrywide the countrywide urban and rural ratio of the residents’ income will continue to certainly be reduced,and the regional disparity will continue to slightly be reduced to 2035;the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ total consumption will continue to significantly be reduced,and its regional disparity will continue to slightly be reduced to 2035.

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    作者简介
    王亚南:王亚南,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化发展研究中心主任,主要研究方向为民俗学、民族学及文化理论、文化战略和文化产业研究。
    刘婷:刘婷,云南省社会科学院民族文学研究所研究员,主要研究方向为文化人类学。
    赵娟:赵娟,云南省社会科学院民族文学研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为古典文学、民族文化和文化产业研究。
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