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    中国文化产业供需协调增长目标——20年以来分析与至2020年测算

    摘要

    本文基于1998~2018年增长,以扩大人民群众文教消费需求和促进城乡、区域共享为目标,检测2018年全国城乡文教消费需求总量应有空间:供需协调性测算36836.25亿元,消除负相关测算48481.04亿元,最佳比例值测算53058.23亿元,最小城乡比测算53058.23亿元,弥合城乡比测算68932.28亿元,城乡无差距测算106457.85亿元,地区无差距测算125744.40亿元,而实际总量仅为31882.97亿元。全国城乡文教消费需求相关方面的增长差距一目了然:一方面在于经济增长与基本民生、文化民生增进的协调性差距,另一方面在于城乡之间、地区之间民生与文化民生增进的均衡性差距。正是文教消费需求增长不力导致文化生产供给增长不足,中国文化产业的发展空间必须从增强“内生动力”中拓展出来,文化产业成为支柱性产业本身并不是目的。在以上分析基础上,以消解发展不平衡不充分为最终目的,测算2020年全国文教消费总量增长空间:历年均增值目标38732.81亿元,供需协调性目标54211.61亿元,消除负相关目标62509.46亿元,最佳比例值目标67153.42亿元,最小城乡比目标66650.34亿元,弥合城乡比目标86817.01亿元,城乡无差距目标134738.91亿元,地区无差距目标157845.62亿元。

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    Abstract

    Based upon the growth from 1998 to 2018,and aiming at the target of extending people’s culture and education consumption demand and promoting sharing between urban and rural areas,and among various regions,measuring to the “due space” of the countrywide total culture and education consumption demand in urban and rural areas in 2018 are as follows:3683.625 billion yuan in the target valued coordinated supply-demand;4848.104 billion yuan in the target valued avoiding negative correlation;5305.823 billion yuan in the target valued optimal proportion;5305.823 billion yuan in the target valued lowest urban-rural ratio;6893.228 billion yuan in the target valued closed urban-rural ratio;10645.785 billion yuan in the target valued no urban-rural gap,12574.440 billion yuan in the target valued no regional gap. But the actual gross was only 3188.297 billion yuan. It is clear at a glance that the growth gap with regard to countrywide culture and education consumption demand in urban and rural areas had two dimensions:One was the coordinated gap between economic growth and the improvement of people’s basic and cultural livelihood;the other one was the balanced gap between the enhancement of urban-rural and regional people’s livelihood and the improvement of people’s cultural livelihood. It was the low increase of culture and education consumption demand that resulted in the short growth of cultural production and supply. The development space of Countrywide Area cultural industry must be exploited from boosting “endogenous motivity”. The cultural industry becomes a pillar industry,which in itself is not the goal. Based upon the above analysis,with the ultimate goal of resolving the unbalanced and inadequate development,the total growth space of countrywide culture and education consumption to 2020 are estimated as follows:3873.281 billion yuan in the valued average added value over the years;5421.161 billion yuan in the target of coordinated supply-demand;6250.946 billion yuan in the target of avoiding negative correlation;6715.342 billion yuan in the target of optimal proportion;6665.034 billion yuan in the target of lowest urban-rural ratio;8681.701 billion yuan in the target of closed urban-rural ratio;13473.891 billion yuan in the target of no urban-rural gap;15784.562 billion yuan in the target of no regional gap.

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    作者简介
    王亚南:王亚南,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化发展研究中心主任,主要研究方向为民俗学、民族学及文化理论、文化战略和文化产业。
    刘婷:刘婷,云南省社会科学院科研处处长、研究员,主要研究方向为文化人类学。
    魏海燕:魏海燕,云南省政协信息中心主任编辑,主要从事传媒信息分析研究。
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