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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    “全面小康”进程人民生活消费总体评价——2000~2019年民生需求景气检测

    摘要

    揭示中国“全面建成小康社会”进程发生的深刻变化,首先应当以民生进步加以衡量。考察民生需求主要在于居民日常生活消费需求,其间蕴含“人民美好生活需要”的诸方面发展。2000~2019年,全国城乡综合演算的各类民生消费数据人均值持续明显增长,2019年居民总消费为2000年的7.78倍,物质消费为7.04倍,非物消费为9.56倍。物质消费比重显著降低6.72个百分点,非物消费比重显著增高6.72个百分点,消费结构出现很大升级变化。居民总消费、物质消费、非物消费地区差全部逐渐缩小;居民总消费、物质消费、非物消费城乡比全部逐渐缩小。“不平衡的发展”在民生领域多有改善。但居民消费率从35.91%明显降低至31.29%,“十二五”以来略有回升。尤其应注意,居民消费支出年均增长明显低于财政支出年增3.33个百分点。居民积蓄率从22.57%持续极显著升高至30.35%,反过来对消费需求的抑制作用加重。依据历年动态推演预测,至2020年全国居民总消费城乡比将略微缩减,地区差也将略微缩减;至2035年全国居民总消费城乡比将继续明显缩减,地区差亦将继续较明显缩减。 <<
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    Abstract

    To reveal the profound changes occurred in China’s process of “Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Aspects”,it is firstly should be measured by the progress of people’s livelihood. The study on the livelihood demand mainly lies in the consumption demand of residents in their daily lives,in which includes the developments of the people’s needs for a better life. From 2000 to 2019,the per capita value of all types of the residents’ consumption demand data in national urban and rural comprehensive calculation evidently continued to increase. The residents’ total consumption in 2019 was 7.78 times that of 2000,the material consumption was 7.04 times and the immaterial consumption was 9.56 times. The proportion of the residents’ material consumption remarkably fell over 6.72 percentage points and the proportion of the residents’ immaterial consumption remarkably rose over 6.72 percentage points,showing a remarkable upgrading change of the consumption structure. The regional disparity of the residents’ total consumption,material consumption and immaterial consumption roundly continued to be reduced;and the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ total consumption,material consumption and immaterial consumption roundly continued to be reduced. The unbalanced development has improved in the field of the people’s livelihood. But the residents’ consumption rate evidently fell from 35.91% to 31.29%,it rose slightly since the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. In particular,the average annual growth of the residents’ consumption expenditure was evidently 3.33 percentage points lower than the annual growth of fiscal expenditure. The residents’ amassment rate significantly continued to rise from 22.57% to 30.35%,which in return aggravate the inhibition of consumption demand. Based on the dynamic prediction test of calendar year,the countrywide the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ total consumption will slightly be reduced,and its regional disparity will slightly be reduced to 2020;the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ total consumption will continue to evidently be reduced,and its regional disparity will continue to certainly be reduced to 2035.

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    作者简介
    王亚南:王亚南,云南省社会科学院研究员,中国人文发展研究与评价实验室首席科学家,云南省中青年社会科学工作者协会会长,主要研究方向为民俗学、民族学及文化理论、文化战略和文化产业。
    刘杰:刘杰,云南省商务研究院副院长、副研究员,云南省国际贸易学会会长,云南省商贸流通专家委员会首席专家,主要研究方向为国内贸易、市场体系建设、居民消费、商贸流通。
    魏海燕:魏海燕,云南省政协信息中心主任编辑,主要从事传媒信息分析研究。
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