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    新冠肺炎疫情对美国经济及中美经贸关系的影响

    摘要

    新冠肺炎疫情是自1918~1919年西班牙流感以来全球最大的公共卫生危机,而美国则是本轮疫情最为严重的国家。受疫情的严重冲击,预计全球经济2020年陷入衰退,美国也将陷入自大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退,二季度的个人消费支出、私人投资、出口、进口的下降以及政府消费和投资的增长大部分都将创下历史新低,一季度GDP增速下降4.8%之后,二季度GDP增速将继续下降29.6%~38.6%,即美国经济连续两个季度出现收缩,标志着经济陷入衰退,2020年美国GDP增速为-10.2%~-4.6%。受疫情影响,预计二季度美国失业率将达到16.72%,三季度失业率可能为13.23%~14.5%,四季度失业率可能为9.81%~10.38%,失业率上升之快、幅度之大,将超过大萧条时期。在应对疫情方面,美联储的货币政策防止了金融危机的发生,财政政策防止了短期内出现经济和社会危机,而随着各州重启经济,预计美国经济将于8月或10月开始复苏,但复苏前景不确定,“W”形复苏可能性较大。在经济陷入严重衰退、“W”形复苏的情形下,疫情将进一步恶化中美经贸关系,加快中美经济从失衡向平衡转变。

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    Abstract

    The new crown epidemic is the biggest public health crisis in the world since the Spanish influenza in 1918-1919,while the United States is the country with the most serious epidemic. Under the severe impact of the epidemic,it is predicted that the global economy will fall into recession this year,and the United States will also fall into the worst recession since the great depression. It is predicted that the decline of personal consumption expenditure,private investment,export and import as well as the growth of government consumption and investment in the second quarter will mostly set a historical record. After the decline of GDP in the first quarter of 4.8%,it is predicted that the decline of GDP in the second quarter will continue The decline is between 29.6% and 38.6%,which means that the U.S. economy contracted for two consecutive quarters,marking a recession,while the U.S. GDP growth is expected to be between -4.6% and -10.2% in 2020. Affected by the epidemic,the U.S. unemployment rate is expected to reach 16.72% in the second quarter,between 13.23% and 14.5% in the third quarter,and between 9.81% and 10.38% in the fourth quarter. The unemployment rate has risen faster and by more than during the great depression. In response to the epidemic,the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy prevented the occurrence of financial crisis and property policy prevented the occurrence of economic and social crisis in the short term. As the epidemic gradually eased down,the States began to restart the economy. It is expected that the U.S. economy will start to recover in August or October,but the recovery prospects are uncertain,and W-type recovery is more likely. In the case of serious recession and W-shaped recovery,the epidemic will further worsen China US economic and trade relations and accelerate the transformation of China US economy from imbalance to balance.

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    作者简介
    罗振兴:罗振兴,中国社会科学院美国研究所经济研究室主任、副研究员,上海研究院兼职研究员。
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