2020年中国经济前景分析
| 书 名： |
2020年中国经济前景分析 |
| 英 文 名： |
ANALYSIS ON THE PROSPECT OF CHINA’S ECONOMY （2020）
|
| 作 者： |
李扬 李平 娄峰 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5201-6743-7 |
| 丛 书 名： |
经济蓝皮书春季号
订阅
|
| 关 键 词： |
中国经济 经济预测 经济发展趋势 研究报告 |
| 出版日期： |
2020-07-01 |
中文摘要
2020年，新冠肺炎疫情影响全球，各国因疫情“闭关锁国”，经济均受到严重冲击，全球化退潮加剧。由于中国对疫情管控措施得当，复产复工节奏稳健，中国经济最先触底反弹。但疫情等因素导致全球产业链、供应链“硬脱钩”，我国将面临诸多困难。2020年我国经济总体保持增长，经济结构继续优化，就业基本可以保持稳定。
预计2020年中国经济增速较上年出现较大幅度的回落，但相较于其他国家，仍然是世界经济的最重要引擎。中国经济增速下滑是由全球新冠肺炎疫情和复杂的国际经济政治因素共同造成的，而非内生增长动力问题。虽然疫情冲击很大，但是暂时现象，没有改变中国经济发展基本趋势，随着全球疫情不断好转、各种应对措施陆续实施，以及肺炎疫苗陆续成功研发，中国的投资、消费和国际贸易等将逐渐恢复到正常增长状态。
预计2020年投资结构进一步改善，消费增速总体平稳，进出口增速下降，贸易顺差基本稳定，居民收入继续平稳增长。
从目前的全球疫情影响来看，相较于全球经济增长，2020年我国经济依然可以保持一定增速，积极调整结构，保持就业、物价稳定，中国经济不会发生硬着陆。在“六稳六保”政策指引下，加大中小企业扶持力度，稳定就业，保障民生，助推经济高质量发展；优化财政政策，促进企业效益提升和激发市场潜在活力；实施积极的财政政策，适当提升财政赤字率，加强宏观审慎政策的逆周期调节作用。
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