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蔡 昉
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李 扬
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    当前我国经济形势和2019年展望

    摘要

    2018年,我国坚持稳中求进工作总基调,以供给侧结构性改革为主线,着力打好“防范化解重大风险、精准脱贫、污染防治”三大攻坚战,国民经济运行总体平稳,稳中有进,结构不断优化,新动能加快成长,质量效益提高,预计全年经济增长6.6%,圆满完成宏观调控的预期目标。但经济运行稳中有变,变中有忧,民营企业经营困难增加、基建投资回落过快、房地产泡沫不断加大、中美贸易摩擦不确定性明显上升。建议把2019年的经济增长目标定为6%左右,物价控制在3%左右。继续坚持稳中求进工作总基调,按照高质量发展要求,以供给侧改革为主线,打好三大攻坚战,激发微观主体的活力,继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健中性的货币政策,做好“稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸、稳外资、稳投资、稳预期”政策落实,保持经济持续健康发展。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,we commit to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability,treat the supply-side structural reform as our main task,and make great efforts to fight the three critical battles against potential risk,poverty,and pollution. The national economy is on the whole stable and makes progress. The economic structure continues to improve,the transformation of growth drivers speeds up,and the quality and effect improve. The yearly economic growth is expected to reach 6.6%,and the goals of macro-control are accomplished. But there are uncertainties and worries in the economy while it is on the whole stable. Private enterprises are faced with increased difficulties in operation,infrastructure investment drops sharply,real estate bubbles continue to grow,uncertainties of the China-US trade conflicts are on the rise,and the social expectation and confidence is not strong. It is advisable to set the 2019 economic growth targets at 6% and commodity prices at 3%. We should continue to commit to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability. In accordance with the requirements of high-quality development,we should treat the supply-side structural reform as our main task,make great efforts to fight the three critical battles,energize market entities,continue to pursue proactive fiscal policy and prudent and neutral monetary policy,and implement the policies to maintain stability in job creation,preserve financial stability,support stable growth of trade,foreign direct investment,and domestic investment,and keep market expectations stable so as to maintain the sound and healthy development of the Chinese economy

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    作者简介
    祝宝良:祝宝良,供职于国家信息中心预测部。
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