- 中国与世界发展形势预测重磅推荐
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The COVID-19 that broke out in 2020 has led to the deviation of the global economic growth path,and the economic cycle of the major economies is not synchronized. The inflation caused by the “pandemic foam” significantly is accelerating the pace of monetary policy tightening in developed economies such as Europe and the United States in the second half of 2022,which may have one more shock on the global economy since the shock of the pandemic. After the continuous impact of the pandemic,China’s economy has shown strong resilience. Economic growth has always maintained positive,but the actual growth path has also shifted downward significantly compared with the original potential path. The resilience of China’s economic growth mainly comes from good pandemic prevention and control effects and production to make up the global supply and demand gap. GDP in the first three quarters of 2022 increased by 3.0% year on year,in which foreign demand played an important role,which was also obvious in the first two years after the outbreak of the pandemic. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2022,the secondary shock of demand decline and global credit contraction caused by continuous interest rate hikes in developed economies will be gradually strengthened,which may have one more shock on China’s economy throughout 2023. Under such circumstances,China should actively take advantage of the favorable conditions of low inflation at home,and increase domestic policies to stabilize the economy to effectively mitigate external shocks and maintain economic resilience and vitality.
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