大洋洲发展报告（2014～2015）
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中文摘要
本报告主要总结并分析了大洋洲主要国家与地区的政治、经济和社会发展态势，特别是中国与相关区域的交流与合作发展。
总体来看，2014年大洋洲地区政治局势保持了2013年以来的良性态势。澳大利亚阿伯特政府比较成功地落实了自己的竞选承诺，废除了碳税并且有效阻遏了非法移民的入境。新西兰举行了大选，国家党因为较为出色的经济提振成绩连续第三次获胜。在稍早举行的斐济大选中，斐济优先党赢得了胜利。这是斐济8年来首次大选，实现了向民主制的回归，国内不同政治势力的激烈斗争暂告一段落。在经济领域，澳大利亚财政赤字状况没有好转，随着矿业经济的降温，经济发展预期也有所降低。新西兰的经济则围绕深化自贸区协定而推进。岛国经济发展仍然面临传统遗留的困难，在更多样化援助的扶助下，经济发展缓慢但前景可期。在大洋洲区域合作事务中，岛国就经济合作举行了多轮多层次的会谈，在海洋资源开发方面的合作有所深入。在外交战略方面，澳大利亚没有重大变化，继续巩固与美国的同盟关系，同时对中国也保持了一定的接触包括军事交流，但两面下注、避免站队的倾向非常明显，而且在美日澳三边同盟方面也有动作。在岛国方面，值得注意的是，现在距法属新喀里多尼亚就独立举行公投仅剩三年，该地区独立运动走向值得进一步关注。
2014年是中国建设“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的开局之年，大洋洲地区是海丝南线的主要沿线国家，不同程度受到或将要受到有关战略的影响。本报告有多篇文章关注相关议题。对于“一带一路”，新西兰有较为主动的回应，特别是强调其与中国外交在多个领域有开拓性进展的历史。澳大利亚也因与中国完成了自贸区谈判，双边经贸投资交流的屏障进一步消除。澳大利亚、新西兰主动申请成为亚投行创始成员国，表达了对区域经济一体化及基础设施投资的热情，丝绸之路南线拓展前景可期。对中国来说，岛屿国家与地区是南线建设的重要经营目标，无论是商贸、投资还是援助，合作前景广阔、方式多样。就具体案例而言，中国对岛国的贸易日益摆脱政治权重的考量，援助则需要更多关注民生领域。不仅如此，中国的投资为岛国获得外部发展资金提供了日益重要的来源，中国也需要不断调整对其资源开发开放度方面的诉求。
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