大洋洲发展报告（2021～2022）
中文摘要
2021年，大洋洲地区发展经受严峻考验，不同国家的经济、政治和外交形势呈现出较大差异。
经济上，新冠肺炎疫情的持续反复继续影响大洋洲各国的经济复苏。随着澳大利亚和新西兰逐渐放弃“清零”政策，两国经济活动逐渐重回正轨，经济复苏态势趋于稳定。但是，新冠肺炎疫情对全球供应链的扰乱、两国劳动力的紧缺和住房需求的快速增加导致两国通货膨胀率持续上扬。与此同时，太平洋岛国则普遍经济复苏乏力。由于太平洋岛国普遍采取严格的防疫政策，旅游业受挫，部分太平洋岛国仍处于经济收缩状态。以大宗商品出口为主且不将旅游业作为支柱产业的太平洋岛国则普遍恢复经济增长。
政治上，由于受新冠肺炎疫情的负面影响和内部治理政策上的失误，部分大洋洲国家执政当局支持率大幅下滑，个别太平洋岛国甚至出现政局严重动荡局面，但大洋洲地区总体保持了政局稳定。澳大利亚和新西兰的政局依然非常稳定，但两国民众对各自政府的支持率都呈现出“高开低走”的态势。多个太平洋岛国顺利完成大选。虽然萨摩亚的权力交接一度受阻，但最终以和平方式解决。所罗门群岛是2021年太平洋岛国中政治动荡最严重的国家。虽然骚乱最终被平息，但中央和地方之间根深蒂固的矛盾与大国地缘政治博弈的相互激荡，或许会给所罗门群岛的政治稳定增添新的变数。
外交上，大国博弈深刻地影响了大洋洲各国的外交政策。澳大利亚和新西兰对大国战略竞争的态度不同且应对方式有别。澳大利亚莫里森政府力推“澳英美安全伙伴关系”（AUKUS），进一步巩固美澳同盟，试图主动塑造有利于自身安全的“印太地区”战略环境。莫里森政府也积极深化与印度和日本的战略伙伴关系，并在“四方安全对话”（QUAD）的小多边机制下推进“印太战略”。同时，中澳关系持续在低位徘徊。新西兰则在坚持多边主义和“以规则为基础”的国际秩序的同时，更加关注以太平洋岛国为核心的周边外交，并且巩固和发展全方位外交，使其在中美关系中维持相对理性的平衡。对于太平洋岛国而言，气候治理是重中之重，因此太平洋岛国努力争取国际社会的援助，并在国际舞台上主动发声，试图说服国际社会采取及时有效的气候治理政策和行动。与此同时，随着美国、日本、印尼和欧盟等积极介入太平洋岛国地区，太平洋岛国也不得不谨慎处理同域内外大国的关系。此外，由于南太平洋大学和太平洋岛国论坛先后陷入危机，太平洋岛国区域治理面临重大挫折。
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