中东发展报告No.21（2018～2019）
| 书 名： |
中东发展报告No.21（2018～2019） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST No.21 （2018-2019）
|
| 作 者： |
李新烽 主编; 唐志超 副主编 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5201-5310-2 |
| 丛 书 名： |
|
| 关 键 词： |
中东地区 海湾国家 美伊关系 地区安全 海湾格局 |
| 出版时间： |
2019年08月 |
中文摘要
当前，中东地区正进入“海湾时刻”。一方面是以沙特阿拉伯为首的海湾国家正致力于一场内政外交的革命，海湾国家正积极扮演地区新领袖的角色并力图重塑中东秩序。另一方面，海湾地区局势持续紧张，以伊朗核问题再起为核心，地区安全问题日益突出，海湾走向战争还是和平成为国际社会关注焦点。海湾长期作为地区稳定的“绿洲”正面临被打破的局面：地区国家内政爆发危机的风险、伊朗核问题引发地区冲突的风险、也门战争的外溢、军备竞赛加剧、海合会国家内部的分裂、极端主义和教派主义的撕裂、具有强烈利己主义趋向的特朗普政府对海湾及中东政策、权力真空的出现以及随之而来的剧烈地缘政治竞争，这一系列因素给海湾的安全蒙上阴影。伊朗问题是关系海湾安全与发展的中心问题，并已取代叙利亚问题成为地区的新焦点。美国对伊朗“极限施压”政策以及伊沙关系的持续恶化对地区安全构成严重负面影响。虽然伊朗与美国、沙特和以色列三国之间爆发战争的可能性不大，但这一风险不能排除。而这也将给地区发展、航道安全、国际石油稳定供应等带来一系列尖锐挑战。当前形势迫切各方保持克制，加强对话，通过谈判解决地区冲突。同时，随着海湾地区旧有安全秩序和力量平衡被打破，应考虑将建立新的地区安全机制提上议事日程。
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