中东发展报告No.26（2023～2024）
| 书 名： |
中东发展报告No.26（2023～2024） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST No.26 （2023-2024）
|
| 作 者： |
王林聪 主编; 王金岩 副主编 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5228-4386-5 |
| 丛 书 名： |
|
| 关 键 词： |
中东地区 战略自主 安全困境 社会治理 气候问题治理 |
| 出版时间： |
2024年10月 |
中文摘要
在大国战略竞争背景下，中东地区处于前所未有的变化之中，中东国家发展喜忧参半，中东地区局势跌宕起伏，呈现出缓和与冲突交织的复杂态势。
首先，从国家层面看，自主、转型和发展成为许多国家的突出特点。一方面，战略自主是许多中东国家的主要追求，转型和发展成为战略选择。以沙特和阿联酋为代表的海合会国家强化战略发展规划，迎接科技革命赋予的新机遇，加快经济和社会转型步伐，推动经济多元化、本地化和市场化，引领中东地区的新发展。另一方面，许多战乱国家仍徘徊在艰难的重建之路上，停战促和、由乱向稳仍存在不确定性。
其次，从地区层面看，“和解潮”和“冲突波”交织构成中东局势变化的特征。一方面，中东“和解潮”持续，在中国的斡旋下，沙特与伊朗恢复外交关系，并由此产生了一系列向好的示范效应，土耳其与埃及、伊朗与埃及等主要地区国家间关系缓和。另一方面，新一轮巴以冲突持续且不断外溢推升地区战争风险，其中，非国家行为体崛起，伊朗联合哈马斯、黎巴嫩真主党、伊拉克“大众动员军”、胡塞武装等非国家行为体组成“抵抗阵线”与美国和以色列之间的对抗升级，深刻改变着当前中东地区地缘政治格局，对中东地区产生深远影响。
再次，从国际层面看，地区联动不断增加，中东地区国际地位进一步凸显。一方面，美国等西方大国的介入力度明显加大，在地区冲突中偏袒以色列并产生了严重的负面影响。另一方面，中东国家主动参与全球治理，积极参与气候问题治理，推动达成“阿联酋共识”，积极加入金砖国家，并强化与中亚、南亚、非洲等地区的联系，成为“全球南方”崛起的重要力量。同时，中东国家还积极回应中国提出的“全球发展倡议”、“全球安全倡议”和“全球文明倡议”，加快了多边合作的步伐，进一步推动中国和中东国家关系进入新阶段。
与此同时，多重因素交织，中东地区既面临严峻的安全困境，又面临复杂的发展困境和治理困境，突出表现在不平等加剧、失业率和贫困率高企、社会问题尖锐，人口膨胀、气候变化、粮食安全、水资源短缺等问题日趋严峻，治理危机不断上升。因此，伴随世界进入新的动荡变革期，中东地区处在历史选择的关键时期，外部干预与地区冲突加剧了地缘政治竞争和地区安全困境，地区发展走向仍存在极大的不确定性。
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