大洋洲发展报告（2023～2024）
| 书 名： |
大洋洲发展报告（2023～2024） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF OCEANIA （2023-2024）
|
| 作 者： |
许少民 费晟 主编; 王学东徐桑奕 副主编 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5228-4858-7 |
| 丛 书 名： |
|
| 关 键 词： |
大洋洲 国际关系 外交 |
| 出版时间： |
2025年04月 |
中文摘要
2023年，大洋洲国家在日趋复杂的全球局势中勉力维持发展和合作的大趋势。经济上，区域国家在多重宏观不确定性中承压前行，发展形势分化。受高通胀和高利率的叠加影响，澳大利亚和新西兰的经济增长相对低迷，但避免了陷入技术性衰退，展现出一定的韧性。太平洋岛国的经济增长整体较2022年有所放缓，但得益于旅游业的复苏、基础设施投资的增加和持续涌入的国际援助等因素，其仍保持了较高的增长率。不过这些国家的经济脆弱性仍然显著，高通胀、高政府债务和频发的自然灾害将持续影响其经济的稳定增长。
政治上，区域国家政局总体稳定，多国顺利举行大选和全民公投。区域国家整体摆脱了新冠疫情对社会秩序的冲击，恢复了正常的社会生活。但新冠疫情带来的“后遗症”仍然困扰着大洋洲国家，民众在经济和民生议题上持续积累的不满情绪在部分国家引发民众对变革的渴望，新西兰、马绍尔群岛、瓦努阿图、瑙鲁等国政权发生更替。澳大利亚工党政府虽然在反腐败、解决住房危机、改变气候政策等方面着力兑现竞选承诺，但是在“原住民之声”修宪公投中惨败，在经济政策、边境安全等议题上也遭到更多质疑和挑战，执政蜜月期已过。
外交上，区域国家在日益增大的地缘政治和经济压力下勉力维持自主性。澳大利亚工党政府在强化与美国等传统伙伴的关系、加大扶持太平洋岛国力度的同时，较为务实地修复对华关系，力求实现中澳关系稳定。新西兰对国际和区域秩序的战略认知转向悲观，对安全议题的重视程度和投入有所上升，但仍坚持相对独立和均衡的外交政策，既深化与西方国家的关系，又维持与包括中国在内的亚太国家的经济合作。太平洋岛国在区域合作方面取得部分进展。域内最重要的政府间组织太平洋岛国论坛解决了分裂危机，而且通过了区域合作蓝图——《蓝色太平洋2050年战略》实施方案。但太平洋岛国在应对日本核污水排海和深海采矿等重要议题上难以形成统一立场，区域一体化仍道阻且长。
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