应对气候变化报告（2025）
书 名： 应对气候变化报告（2025）
英 文 名： ANNUAL REPORT ON ACTIONS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE （2025）
作 者： 巢清尘 陈迎 主编; 胡国权 庄贵阳 副主编
I S B N： 978-7-5228-6569-0
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出版时间： 2025年12月
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中文摘要
2024年全球地表平均温度较工业化前水平高出约1.55℃，是全球有观测记录以来最暖的一年，全球升温幅度距《巴黎协定》设定的温控目标已经越来越近。极端天气气候事件频发，热浪、洪水、干旱、野火和迅速增强的热带气旋等造成了严重的混乱，带来了巨大的经济损失。2025年在世界经济与国际政治动荡不安中，全球应对气候变化的国际进程继续推进。为应对气候变化，绿色低碳发展已经成为国际共识。本书首先对气候变化形势进行分析与展望，介绍了气候变化科学新认识，接着展示了国际气候进程，然后梳理了国内政策和行动，分享了行业行动和公众参与成果，对中国城市绿色低碳发展水平进行评价，最后本书附录依惯例收录了2024年全球、“一带一路”区域和中国气候灾害的相关统计数据，供读者参考。
本书认为，第一，全球持续变暖，高温不断刷新纪录。最近10年（2015～2024年）是有观测记录以来最暖的十年，全球地表平均温度较工业化前水平高1.23℃。2024年，中国地表平均温度为1901年以来最高，2015～2024年，中国地表平均温度较1961～1990年平均值高出1.54℃。2024年，中国平均降水量较常年值偏多10.2%，为1961年以来第三多，中国累计暴雨站日数为1961年以来最多。
第二，2℃较之1.5℃全球温控目标，额外的0.5℃温升对于全球尺度的平均态气候、极端天气气候事件以及许多关键区域的气候都将带来可检测到的影响。虽然2024年全球地表平均温度较工业化前水平高出约1.55℃，但由于单独某个年份的温度异常包含了内部变率的影响，这并不代表《巴黎协定》1.5℃温控目标已被突破。尽管如此，近期升温幅度接近1.5℃现象发生的频率和升温幅度在增加这一现象，无疑也对气候变化应对工作敲响了警钟。
第三，全球气候变化正深刻重塑国家发展路径与全球治理格局。自1992年《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）达成以来，国际社会构建起涵盖《京都议定书》《巴黎协定》的多边治理体系，确立“共同但有区别的责任”等原则，推动各国在减缓、适应、资金、技术等领域开展合作。特别是《巴黎协定》实施以来，气候资金成为支持发展中国家行动、推动全球绿色转型的关键支柱，资金议题的地位不断上升。从2009年的千亿美元承诺到2025年后的新的集体量化目标（NCQG），资金议题正经历“从千亿走向万亿”的量变过程，同时责任划分、资金来源等问题日益成为谈判焦点。与此同时，全球气候外交格局也更加多元化，从《联合国气候变化框架公约》拓展至G20、金砖国家、“全球南方”等平台，双多边机制交织，资金议题日益演化为发展权与制度权的博弈。当前，气候资金不仅是融资问题，更成为全球治理体系的重要组成部分，资金规模扩张、模式演进与责任博弈交织发展。
第四，2025年是《巴黎协定》框架下各缔约方提交新一轮国家自主贡献（NDC）的关键节点，标志着全球气候治理进入开启新一轮集体努力的重要阶段。新一轮NDC呈现一些新特征：多数缔约方的提交时间普遍晚于《巴黎协定》授权要求的时间节点，已提交的NDC基本都适用了NDC信息导则，大部分涵盖了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）定义的所有排放部门和温室气体类别，此外，超过95%的已提交新一轮NDC的缔约方对《巴黎协定》下首次全球盘点（GST）的结果作出了回应。
第五，气候变化引发的极端天气气候事件频发、生态系统失衡以及国际社会对碳减排的刚性约束，正倒逼全球能源体系加速向清洁化、低碳化方向转型。然而，当前全球贸易碎片化趋势却与这一进程形成尖锐冲突。区域贸易协定数量激增、贸易保护主义措施升级、供应链区域化重构等现象，使得我国新能源产业链面临原材料供应不稳定与资源安全风险、贸易壁垒与技术遏制风险、市场准入与需求波动风险等。面对这一复杂局面，要积极构建系统性对冲策略体系，这既是应对贸易碎片化挑战的迫切需要，也是我国新能源产业在气候变化框架下实现可持续发展的必然选择。
第六，在全球能源结构加速向绿色低碳方向转型的背景下，长时储能技术因在平衡新能源波动性、提升电网稳定性方面发挥着核心作用，成为我国实现“双碳”目标的关键支撑。
第七，零碳园区建设是一项创新性强和挑战性高的系统性工程，是实现“双碳”目标的关键抓手，也是从碳达峰到碳中和进程中实现减碳目标的重要载体。在国家积极推动园区绿色低碳转型的背景下，各地不断创新零碳园区建设模式、强化低碳零碳负碳技术应用、运用数字技术赋能能源管理等，并将零碳理念贯穿园区的全生命周期，注重提升园区经济价值、社会价值和生态价值等。零碳园区需要做好用能结构转型、园区节能降碳、产业结构优化、基础设施升级、先进技术应用、能碳管理和改革创新等工作，进一步优化能源结构、提升能源效率、构建完善循环经济体系等。
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