中国经济增长报告(2011~2012)
书 名: |
中国经济增长报告(2011~2012) |
英 文 名: |
ANNUAL REPORT ON CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH (2011-2012)——The Structural Slowdown and Regional Transformation and Upgrading in China's Economy
|
作 者: |
张自然 副主编; 刘霞辉 主编; 袁富华 副主编; 张平 主编 |
I S B N: |
978-7-5097-4018-7 |
丛 书 名: |
|
关 键 词: |
中国经济 经济增长 研究报告 2011~2012 |
出版时间: |
2013年01月 |
中文摘要
受全球金融危机影响,世界各国经济增速普遍下降,世界经济发展中的不确定因素依然众多,增长动力仍然不足,欧债危机的继续蔓延、美国“财政悬崖”的持续、发达国家长短期目标的不一致等问题仍压制了投资者和消费者的信心,严重影响着经济的复苏。受这些因素的影响,中国2012年经济增长率明显下滑,进入减速增长期,但与以前历次经济增速放缓不同,此次并未出现大规模失业,且通货紧缩压力逐渐加大,说明此次增速放缓是结构性减速。结构性减速的深层次原因是中国以往经济增长所依赖的由人口红利、全球化红利与城市化红利所支撑的经济增长模式因内外部条件的变化而面临全面调整。为应对中国经济增长的结构性减速,一方面要从需求侧“稳经济”,降低减速冲击,另一方面要进行供给侧的积极调整,提升企业劳动生产率和产业竞争力,以达到“稳速增效”的政策目标。 本书梳理了世界发达经济体和发展中国家的经济发展经验,讨论了从经济增长加速到减速的核心原因,发现成熟经济体持续、均衡增长的长期驱动因素就是持续的效率改进,它推动着技术创新和经济结构的调整。在国内外现代化指标的基础上,本书结合中国发达城市实际,将中国发达城市转型升级分为五个一级指标,并选取了28个具体指标,利用2005~2010年的数据和层次分析法对发达城市转型升级进行了更进一步的系统量化研究。数据分析发现,与全球发达国家比较,中国特大城市近年来效率改进速度显著,但也面临着很大问题,主要是第三产业相对劳动生产率(即第三产业与第二产业劳动生产率之比,第二产业劳动生产率为1)持续降低,低于发达国家第三产业相对劳动生产率大于或等于1的水平。如果不加速改善服务业劳动效率,而盲目提高服务业比重的话,就会形成低效的产业结构,而提高现代服务业比重是提升服务业效率的关键。 为了更好地评估中国各省区市的可持续发展情况,本书提出了一套中国各省区市发展前景评价体系。该发展前景评价体系一级指标包括经济增长、增长可持续性、政府运行效率和人民生活四个部分,通过产出效率、经济结构、经济稳定、产出消耗、增长潜力、环境质量、政府效率、社会保障、人民生活和消费结构等方面的近60个指标运用主成分分析法对各省区市发展前景进行客观评价,得出了中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)1990~2011年的发展前景指数和排名情况;将发展前景评价细化到一级指标,得出了中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)1990~2011年经济增长、增长可持续性、政府运行效率和人民生活的发展前景指数和排名情况;分别将各省(自治区、直辖市)1990年后平均、2000年后平均、2009~2011年的发展前景分为5个级别,发现2009~2011年、2000年以来,上海市、北京市、江苏省、浙江省处于发展前景的第一级,而1990年以来则是上海市、北京市、江苏省、天津市处于第一级。在此基础上,本书对影响各省(自治区、直辖市)发展前景的因素包括一级指标、二级指标、具体指标等进行分析。一级指标中人民生活所占权重最高,具体指标权重最高的城镇基本养老保险覆盖率所占权重为3.63%,农村社会养老保险覆盖率、城市化率、城镇失业保险覆盖率、城镇基本医疗保险覆盖率的权重分别为3.60%、3.57%、3.42%、3.30%。这反映了我国从工业化转向城市化过程中,与城市化密切相关的城市化水平、养老保险、失业保险、基本医疗保险等指标的重要程度。
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